Year In Review

If .8950 breaks and can hold lower, essentially we have a bounce off the bottom of the bull channel on the Daily chart. The failure at .9000 will confirm. Next major support would be .8893 at the 100SMA.

Are two pictures worth two-thousand words?

Looking Good So Far...

So the small short I attempted was unsuccesful, and rightly so as it was an impulse trade.

-31 pips

However, the trade which I had planned has behaved well thus far. Price spiked on the retest of the broken neckline and broke pretty hard into the 16:00 GMT price fix. Word was that there was a large imbalance of excess sellers and events unfolded accordingly.

Price traveled to a low right near .8900 and subsequently bounced. A bomb scare in Times Square squeezed the dollar bringing the AUD right back near entry, but it seems as though that is subsiding now....

I'm moving my stop down 25 pips to .9052 to take some risk off the table.

Unrealized P/L: +39.5 pips

Short at market .8977 Stop: .9077 Target: .8600

Asia Play

.8860 broke, so I opened a small short position on the retrace with a stop @ .8899

Entry: .8869

Possible Pullback Pattern Pending

While the retail market closed for the holiday around .8825, interbank trade brought the pair up near session highs at .8850-60

It's very likely we'll get stopped on the open today, in which case there are some very attractive short entry areas to watch for.

On a H6 chart, the medium-term Triangle/H&S pattern has it's neckline at ~.8970. This is the bottom of the range of interest. Above there, a 144EMA rests at .9040 and further up lies the top of the bear channel at .9060. If a fib range is calculated from the last downswing, this .8960/9060 range intersects the 50% & 61.8% retracement lines.

Most likely scenario, I think, is that the bearish bias holds but the unknown variable is how deep a retracement we'll see.

Keep in mind, long term trends can take long term 'breathers,' and that trend is still up-up-up since March. It's possible at any minute that the bulls will stampede the forest, sending the bears back to hibernation.

All I Want for Christmas is...

... a very heavy Aussie. It's pushing towards new lows as I speak. Moving stop to breakeven which is apx an ATR length away from the lows.

I'm so tempted to take profits and run, but the trade is only yielding a ~1:1 r/r ratio right now. This would maintain my Sharpe ratio, but not improve it at all. I need a good 200-400 pip trade to really start beefing up the stats.

update: stop moved to .8870

Holiday Sleigh Ride

Bearish sentiment has remained, keeping the pair below .8900 which bodes well for the trade. Dow's up near +100 for the day, and the Aussie doesn't seem to mind.

Moving stop to .8940 to remove some risk. This is today's low plus some ATR based wiggle room. If it nears there a re-entry should be planned.

100 SMA Touch

Price has touched the 100 sma on the daily chart. There's been a slight bounce, but not much conviction. The reason for entry last night was that price broke through it's 24-day lows, something it hasn't done since July 8th. Indicators were much more bullish on that occasion, which led it to rise to where we're at now.

Call Me Johnny-Come-Lately

Short on the large head-n-shoulders @ .8895

Stop: .9000

Target: .8500

Bonk

Schtopped out.

-116 pips

Stop Adjustment

moving up to .8940 to reduce some risk.

UPDATE: Reducing target to .9130 as well. The market seems to be saying that without good surprises, no rallies.

I agree with Jason (FXCM) that the Fundamentals are getting stale, however the same if not worse could be said for the US despite all their posturing.

Long View

Entry: .9055

Stop: .8905

Target: .9330

Looks Can Be Deceiving...

-30 pips

took the short reversal @ .9120

S: .9150

T:.9070

Idea Is Now Live

....Looked like a decent trade.

I've taken it live.

Entry: .91124

Intraday Long (demo)

E: .9110

S: .9080

T: .9160

Exit on First Sign of Strength

The position reached a high of ~+16pips. I think the original target may be a bit ambitious for a Friday after noon.

Currently up 6 pips. Hopefully we can see .9130/40 by days end.

UPDATE: Price reached .9123 and stalled. Exit for +13 pips.

Have a great weekend!

Demolicious

Went long on a bounce near P.P. support .9110

Stop: .9080

Target: .9160

Short Bus

currently short .9164 as of 11:16 right at the Person's Pivot resistance.

Will exit on next clear 'voodoo' buy signal.

Price currently trading .9140/50

(DEMO)

Update: closed for -2 pips

Fake Plastic Trees

....scored +6 (fake) pips today! (demo account)

I'm currently playing around with an intraday strategy again, 15m charts with Persons Pivots and some crazy voodoo hoo-doo buy sell signals.

We All Gotta Lose Sometime...

After apx. 1 1/2 hours of torture (price flirting with my stop,) I finally got booted a few minutes ago.

-101.7 pips

Now's a good opportunity to sit back, relax and re-evaluate the market from the sidelines. It'll take some progression in order to really determine whether conditions are range-bound, or possibly even bearish.

Thank Ye Bernanke...

...hopefully the dovish stance bodes well for the USD carry.

Not By the Hair of My Chinny-Chin-Chin...

Anything's possible at this point...

NFP Schizophrenia

NFP was a huge surprise, and though it is a bullish sign for the economy people raced to the dollar suspecting rates may be hiked much sooner than previously thought.

Stop was triggered at .9180 for +50 pips

I've re-entered at .9150 just now, with a stop at .9050

Hopefully, people have bought enough dollars already today, and the positive sentiment can return giving the trade some tailwinds. Also, I'm noticing a pattern that a lot of the AUD's action for the week is happening during Interbank trade, pre-retail hours on Sunday. Those crafty folks are getting the move and then sitting pretty while everyone else scrambles all week for 10 pips.

Have a great weekend!

Nine One Eight Oh

STOP MOVE

knock knock knockin on 93's dooooooor....

Meager As It May Be...

...it's profit time.

Stop moved to .9140.

Good Entry

In the spirit of keeping my win rate up, I'm moving stop to break even.