Trade Adjustment

Since this idea has worked in my favor, I'm reigning in the stop and the raising the target for a decent r/r ratio.


Stop: .8550

Target: .8950

Reversed Position

+16 pips on close.

E: 8649

S: 8450

T: 8850

Loose r/r for now, to build into. Bad news is getting less response than it typically was in the last few weeks (lack of powder??) And as a good friend reminds me, the Daily 200SMA is lingering below.

If a breakdown occurs, we'll know it for sure and look to enter on a retrace.

Fresh Squeezed Daily

A short idea to start the week.

E:8665

S:8855

T:8465

Which way did he go George, which way did he go?

...NFP is lighting the market's crackpipe.

Negative NFP results are weakening the dollar, but initially there was a knee-jerk upward (USD) move due to the news' addition to the already bleak global economy.

Carry-traders are seeing it as positive, as their yield differentials remain, and Bears are seeing it as negative.

Perfect time to jump ship on a Friday! There's most likely more volatility, but it'll probably be illogical and halt at some unpredictable point in the day.

+152 pips

(week total apx. 260 pips)

2.36 R

NFP on the way.

The open trade is up about 200 pips. Funny thing is I could see that erased in just a few minutes.


We'll see.

Early NYC morning

...looks like we may see some consolidation ahead of the BOE & ECB decisions tomorrow @ 7am.

Good reason to hit the hay!

Stop adjustment: .8940

Change of Plans

I had to close my open orders last night. We had company while watching the season premiere of LOST.

Unfortunately missed a nice entry.

Went short at market just now.

S: .8960

T: .8570

Wedgie Adjust

Market's pulled up a bit.

Closed 2nd half for +46 pips.

Selling into today @ .8910

Buying @ .8820

S/L on either will be 50 pips ((.25% risk) the remainder of the 2nd position.)

Half Off

For one reason or another, the market is showing signs of life. I've watched many a 'good' trade go sour so I've closed half the position for a gain of 73 pips.

Stop moved to b/e (adjusted for rollover cost) @ .8908

Update II

S: .8970

E: .8910

T1: .8765

T2: .8570

Update

RBA is leaving rates unchanged.

Price took a lovely dive, so I'm going to take profits on half the position if we can reach .8750 and move the S/L to break even to see if there's some follow through on the down trend. Most expected rates to increase, so this is a bit of a surprise.

Fade Time

Here's an idea I'm working on with one of my big influences over at ForexLive .

The idea is to fade the strength we get from the potential RBA rate hike, playing on te idea that the downtrend will resume.

ENTRY: .8910

STOP: .8970

TARGET: .8750

(EDIT: added 10 pips to the stop in order to give it a little more breathing room)

(UPDATE: Filled @ 14:40EST Monday )

Eat My Shorts

Anticipating the FOMC data, here's a short idea should the dollar receive a boost.

Just a quick 30/50 play, barely any %'g at risk.

S: 1.4065

T: 1.3985

UPDATE (14:47EST) : Missed target on EURUSD, jumped out for -3 pips .

UPDATE2 (14:53EST) : Reversed the play E4029 S3999 T4080 on rumors of China options expiry @ 4000 & stops above .4060

UPDATE 3: That Sucked ;)

LONG AUDUSD

.8989

stop: .8800

target (soft) : .9299

risk: 1%

UPDATE (Sunday Open) : I was able to squeak out just before retail prices were updated, which made a loss of 147 pips, instead of 190. That's not terrible.

Cable

Just sold a rally in cable.

Let's see if we can get anything short to work this week, longs sure as hell aren't.

Short market.

Stop: 1.6180

Target: 1.6110

(EDIT: 32 MINUTES LATER REMEMBERING WHY I NEVER TRADE CABLE)

Smart Move

Australian CPI came out better than anticipated and price shot up 30 pips immediately following.

I was able to eek 8 pips or so in the struggle, and currently am long with a stop @ .8960.

0.5% of account at risk.

Waffle Trade

....flipped

If Ya Can't Beat Yen, Join Yen...

There seems to be some early signs of USD & JPY strength showing.

Short AUDUSD @ .8990

Stop: .9050

Target: .8890

Shakedown

USDJPY -45 pips

AUDUSD -55 pips

I bailed early on the AUDUSD for a loss of -80 pips and managed to take back 25 pips on the bounce. I'll take the trade again on a break of .9030 . Better to stay flat now in case the drop resumes.

State of the State

Long AUDUSD @ .9029
Trailing Stop: .8929

Long USDJPY @ 90.00
Stop: 89.55
Target: 92.20

Contrary to Popular Opinion...

...took a long order @ .9029 just now.

Two huge down days in the equity markets should merit some sort of correction tomorrow.

If AUD breaks below .8970 we may be looking at a longer leg down.


Stop: .8929

Target: .9229

Special attention around .9170 is merited since it was past support. Quite possibly it will be resistance this time around.

On the bench...

I'm sidelined til things clear up a bit. I think there are too many possibilities at the moment. Long term-trend continuation? Range bound? Trend change?

Better safe than...

...stopped out twice.

I was tripped at .9174 on the dip to .9172 . Frustrating, but oh well. I re-entered on the bounce at the same price and let it run to .9265 . This comes up as the 61.8% retracement of the down move started Friday. Took profits to wash the loss and placed a re-entry order @ .9275 .

The markets should be fairly thin today with the US closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day so if that's all the oomph we get, that's all we get.

-51 pips

+41 pips

net: -10 pips

Preparation is the Key...

It's always important to start the trading week off right...

Depending on how much noise we hear regarding Greece &
Dubai, we could see things begin to turn up. However,
if those two themes dominate the wires it's likely we'll see a large move down.
It's yet another week sitting right near a pretty major 'point of contention.'
Planning & prep is key so when the knuckle wringing begins,
one doesn't lose their cool.

I hopped back into the trade just before close on Friday considering the price never
broke down. I'll have to be on my toes for the open today.

Trade Closed

Closed for 18.2 pips.

It seemed as though it would only be a matter of time before .92 was tested so I erred on the side of caution & closed. Might as well end the week in the black.

I have an entry order @ .9272 just in case the pair finds it's legs again.

Can I get a retrace...

...but not a breakdown.

Data today brought a lot of see-saw action to the markets. Watching the other Majors had me feeling like a dog watching a tennis match. The Aussie showed much strength today, with rumors of the RBA sitting atop .9330 to "smooth" price action, not slam it. This is exactly the effect it had.

Now entering the Asian session we're seeing a little Dollar firming. No data should keep the session 'behaving.'

Stop moved with 34EMA 'low' to .9179

Surprising Australian Data

Unemployment down to 5.5% from 5.7%

Added roughly 35K jobs, while analysts speculated only 10K.

Currently trading @ .9275, roughly 20pips off the high

Stop moved to .9149

Stop Adjustment

...moved to .9140

Yesterday's Yen strength really tried my patience. All looks good for now, the key being "for now..."

Aussie currently trading around .9260

T.A.A.R.P.

...Troubled American's Automobile Repayment Plan.

China Ends U.S.’s Reign as Largest Auto Market

Obama's working as we speak on figuring a clever way to promote "Clunkers for Cash" in lieu of Treasury payments to China.

All jokes aside, this is big news, albeit not surprising in the least.

011110

Today's a palindrome folks. (If you trade in the U.S.)

It's binary as well, what a day for number geeks!

Here's the scoop:

As you can see above, the Dollar felt a little dirty, so it took a bath once the market opened in Sydney. Pre-retail market open, there was 'real' money seen buying Aussie, which saw most of the anti-dollar pairs gap on the open, a rare occasion in The Land of FX.

The picture below shows the current strategy. The entry taken post-NFP is doing quite nicely, pushing into the .9320 high as we speak. Stop is being trailed along the 34EMA (low) on the H6 chart. Top-line target is parity.

Happy trading to all this week!

Good Morning Down Undah

Stop moved to .9078

Quite the rally on the open today. Playing the safe side as sometimes these Sunday rallies have a tendency to fizzle.

NFP Delight

Unfortunately I jumped ship before payroll data to be 'safe,' so I missed the meat of the move. I re-entered long on the break of .9200 . Unless bias shifts back short again, I'm shooting for the moon on this one.

Target: Parity

Stop: .9050

Reversed Position

Unfortunately, the short idea didn't work out. I don't feel so bad, as many speculators saw the same opportunity.

I flipped my bias for now, and have gone long at .9128.

Stop: .9228

Target: .9528

Squeaky Clean

...I was able to squeak out with a small loss, for sake of a better entry.

Sell on a retrace to .9150 or a breakdown of .9100 .

Reloaded

Stopped out for -30 pips.

Able to reload around the same area, with a healthier stop this time.

-75 pips on the rally today.

I was able to get in short at .9130 about an hour ago.

Tight stop 30 pips up. Soft target of .9080, hard target at .9030 .

A Look at the Book...

There really isn't much in the way of buy orders if price were to keep moving upward. In fact, sell orders increase in proportion whether price moves up or down. If it moves down, there's a good chance a lot of the open long positions begin liquidating.

Interesting spot of note, the spike in sell orders shown just above .8500 is more prominent this week than it was last. Could it be that last weeks illiquid trading conditions shook out some weak positions and pending orders?

This should be a very interesting week. It's anyone's guess right now. I'm just excited to be back, I get lonely when the market's closed for extended periods! :)

Year In Review

If .8950 breaks and can hold lower, essentially we have a bounce off the bottom of the bull channel on the Daily chart. The failure at .9000 will confirm. Next major support would be .8893 at the 100SMA.

Are two pictures worth two-thousand words?

Looking Good So Far...

So the small short I attempted was unsuccesful, and rightly so as it was an impulse trade.

-31 pips

However, the trade which I had planned has behaved well thus far. Price spiked on the retest of the broken neckline and broke pretty hard into the 16:00 GMT price fix. Word was that there was a large imbalance of excess sellers and events unfolded accordingly.

Price traveled to a low right near .8900 and subsequently bounced. A bomb scare in Times Square squeezed the dollar bringing the AUD right back near entry, but it seems as though that is subsiding now....

I'm moving my stop down 25 pips to .9052 to take some risk off the table.

Unrealized P/L: +39.5 pips

Short at market .8977 Stop: .9077 Target: .8600

Asia Play

.8860 broke, so I opened a small short position on the retrace with a stop @ .8899

Entry: .8869

Possible Pullback Pattern Pending

While the retail market closed for the holiday around .8825, interbank trade brought the pair up near session highs at .8850-60

It's very likely we'll get stopped on the open today, in which case there are some very attractive short entry areas to watch for.

On a H6 chart, the medium-term Triangle/H&S pattern has it's neckline at ~.8970. This is the bottom of the range of interest. Above there, a 144EMA rests at .9040 and further up lies the top of the bear channel at .9060. If a fib range is calculated from the last downswing, this .8960/9060 range intersects the 50% & 61.8% retracement lines.

Most likely scenario, I think, is that the bearish bias holds but the unknown variable is how deep a retracement we'll see.

Keep in mind, long term trends can take long term 'breathers,' and that trend is still up-up-up since March. It's possible at any minute that the bulls will stampede the forest, sending the bears back to hibernation.

All I Want for Christmas is...

... a very heavy Aussie. It's pushing towards new lows as I speak. Moving stop to breakeven which is apx an ATR length away from the lows.

I'm so tempted to take profits and run, but the trade is only yielding a ~1:1 r/r ratio right now. This would maintain my Sharpe ratio, but not improve it at all. I need a good 200-400 pip trade to really start beefing up the stats.

update: stop moved to .8870