Rates Up Down Under

Got a fill at .9130 at the rate decision. Up about 20-30 pips instantly.

Let's see what happens.

Stop @ .9030

IB Short Covering Is My Bet...

...I drew some lines while lusting to buy the charts & decided against it. Had there been a short squeeze mixed with buying pressure the IB moves pre-retail would've been larger, I think.

There should be an opportunity to get in at a better price soon.

Me thinks me drinks on this fine Sunday eve!

Cheers.

Last significant correction ran all through June.

The current correction hasn't extended as far in price or duration... yet. Behind both corrections are very similar price patterns. Impulsive at first, smoothed, then again impulsive and finally the correction. Both bull runs spanned ~14 weeks & corrected for ~6.

Will price behave similarly after a little more bear action?

Sea Change or Much Needed Breather?

The Aussie broke it's trendline from March. After bottoming around .8950, price has now started to ease back up to the broken line.

Will it bounce back down & confirm a switch in sentiment?

Will it remain stuck in the .89-.94 range?

Was it merely a headfake to clear out the excessive longs built up?

Only time will tell... I'll take my 25 pips and run to the sidelines for now!

Stop Adjustment

Stop moved to .9130

The Trend is Your Friend...

The Equity markets pouted all yesterday morning on the fresh data, only to bring the indexes close to unchanged in the last hour or so of the session.

Overnight, some Australian news came out which blasted the AUDUSD through the .9210 resistance. It also cleared .9250-60, which is now acting as support.

A stop move is in order soon. Where, I'm not sure yet.

Happy Holidays to all!

How do you say "Toro" in Australian?

Data Day

......tons of figures coming out today should make for a bumpy ride. GDP & Case Schiller in the a.m. & then crude & gas at the close.

Should be fun!

Lines in the Sand

So far, .9100 was well guarded. If/when there's a pullback, it would be nice to see .9150 and/or .9200 behave similarly.

The daily & weekly charts show what seems to be a nice clean bounce from their trendline/MA support. There was much skepticism regarding the risk trade last week, so hopefully some dry powder is out there to keep the bids coming...

Even Steven...

....is where the stop loss is moved to.

No sense in letting an early winner turn loser.

Bullish action on the weeks open was typical throughout the last trade. However, it also usually led to fairly weak price action in the week to follow.

A Horse Named Trigger...

...trade open.

Currently trading at .9120

Let's see what opportunity brings!

Here's the Plan, Stan

Entry: .9101

Stop: .8999

Target: .9750 (stop actively managed along the way)

Daily Outlook: Uptrend line since mid March lines up with entry. Stop placement lines up currently with the 50MA, which will rise if the long term uptrend persists.

H4 Outlook: Entry lines up with the 61.8 fib retracement of the last run from 11/01-11/16.

(.8905-.9405)

Stop, In the Name of Love....

Finally stopped out at 3:15 am.

What a wild ride it was.

20 days, my longest trade held yet...

Time to sit back and plan my nest move.

+200 pips (10.3 pips interest)

Mr T. likes gold...

....but sees a double top.

I agree. If the bears keep up we might get stopped.

WWTD?

Tough Call

"...today was a good day." - Ice Cube

While it's tempting after today's gains to slide the stop up a tad, I've decided against it. We tapped a high at .9405. Since then price action has held stable, but looks as though it may test the range we just broke out of again. Keeping the stop ~150 pips below current ranges has worked for two weeks, while over-tightening would have booted us a few times over.

On the daily charts, the most recent swing low is still .9200 . There was a brief pullback since then in which .9260 held, but the correction was sideways and not the more healthy "two steps forward, one step back." While seemingly bullish, we could retest this range to shake out the "weak" longs. If it is, in fact, bullish then there's nothing to worry about. If it turns out to be a true loss of momentum then we're stopped out at a moderate 2:1 R/R ratio.

.9370/9400's the new .9320/60

Stop Adjustment

....currently at .9199

.9260 is closest support level.

Weekly Wrap Up

Broad market strength kept the trade afloat at the beginning of the week. Since the AUDUSD jumped out of the gate on Sunday afternoon, not much steam was left for during the week.

Yesterday was a temporary scare in my opinion. People are wary of any signs of overextension, and rightfully so after the GFC last year.

The problem with looking through last years 'lens' as far as valuations are concerned is that it's a stale view. Yes, it may seem alarming that asset prices are seemingly sprinting back to pre-crisis levels, but they're doing this on the back of a steadily declining dollar.

10,000 on the DOW is not the same as the last time we reached that level... The amount of Dollars that have been injected into the economy, and more importantly STILL being injected into the economy with no plan to rest for months to come will continue to provide tailwinds to risk appetite.

I'm in no way an expert, but I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to see that the good ol' greenback people swapped their assets for last year, is by no means the same greenback you'll get if you decide to do the same today...

Have a great weekend!

More Jobs!

...yet another surprise month of the Australian economy adding both full & part-time jobs.

This fares well for our position.

Fun Trade

AUDUSD is making new highs.

Stop moved to .9162

Currently a bull tomahawk is forming... (M5 chart)

Trade well!

Red Bull

...stop moved to .9142

All is Good in the Hood; +1.2% today......

Bull Flag

Here's a view from the H4 chart.

Entry on 10/29 is denoted by the green vertical line.

A nice bull flag has formed, hopefully lending credibility to our view.

A correction should happen soon, and it's tidiness or lack thereof will hint at the next direction of the move.

Safeguard

The USD seems to be the carry trade vehicle for now....

That being said, the obvious trade is usually not so good in the short term.

So far, our trade is a good one. In order to protect that, I'm moving the stop to .9085

This will lock in ~75 pips in case we get a break down and the range from the last month holds.

In the event of seeing another big green weekly candle form, the stop will be moved up further.

Currently the trade is up 245 pips. Appetizing, but this one is for the long haul. The trade has generated 4 pips from the interest alone.

I'd say I won't consider another idea until this one fails, or is up safely near 500 pips.

So Far, So Good...

Things appear to be holding steady.

We'll see what the afternoon brings...

NFP Trading Plan

If AUDUSD...

a) Crashes through the stop, sit on hands for cue on next direction.

b) Hits stop and stalls, look to re enter on signs of strength.

c) Rallies, then falls, keep stop at breakeven

d) Rallies, and holds, move stop to .9100 (~+100 pips)

G'Day Mate.

This should be an interesting morning.

The infamous NFP...

Aussie is waking up nicely. Price just recently broke the .9150 level, next stop .9180.

If the dollar rallies there's now a good cushion to sit on. If it falls, we're sitting pretty.

Stop moved to breakeven +1.

Trade well!

Don't You Eat That Yellow Snow!

The 5 minute chart shows big footprints taking profits, but a perceptible tailwind seems to hold fast on all of them.

The long term view on the weekly chart still show a green bias.

Support

Choppy as it may be, the uptrend line on the daily charts is holding. It should protect from a drop below the low .89's

Buy the Rumor, Sell the News...

Perfect example. With the .25% rate already 'baked in' we saw the AUDUSD 'throw up in it's mouth' a little.

I'm keeping the stop in order to accommodate volatility. Hopefully we'll see a leveling and then some smoother price action (upwards) to come.

A clean break after some pressure at .9150 would be a good sign. I'd look for that are to become support after as well, which would be a good time to move the stop & take some risk off the table.

What a Wild Ride...

....it's a risk rollercoaster.

The market has officially 'lit the crackpipe,' to quote one of my favorite traders.

easy like sunday morning?

.....apparently, all I can do from the blackberry is write titles.

My point was to be ironic, as the AUDUSD had dropped almost 100 pips in early Sunday trade.

Since then it's rallied back to .9040 and is dangling.

I have no idea what to think. My only assumption is that the IB market is bigger than I, and that players there have their own motives.

I stay strong in my convictions and look to volatility for aid, not pain.

Good Luck!