If this is broken in the coming sessions, serious conviction is behind our trade. Patience will have paid off.
Friday, August 28, 2009
AUDJPY Long Term Ascending Wedge
If this is broken in the coming sessions, serious conviction is behind our trade. Patience will have paid off.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Trade the Plan
Today's really all about holding the long term lot I've had.
A large marktet correction today will most likely boot us from the trade.
If that's the case I'll look to be a buyer again @ 77.00
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Apples & Pares
Pared gains from this morning.
No more trading for the day.
Existing AUDJPY lot from last week still open.
Still bullish.... for now. I WILL collect interest if it kills me..... not really, just till my sentiment changes ;-)
Negligible losses defending the position today, apx -20 pips.
Yen Roll Over
The yen is breaking down nicely in favor of our AUDJPY trade.
Stop on the 2nd lot is moved now to 78.68
This greatly lowers the risk, and sits below what looks to be a good support level.
If it breaks through, then the trade is invalidated now anyway.
Guppy Short Part Deaux
Pulled +36 pips from the 1st lot.
2nd broke even.
re-entered short 1 lot just now @ 154.50 to protect the 2 lots out on the aussie.
tight stop @ 154.68
Monday, August 24, 2009
Aussie Add
Added 1 lot to position @ 78.85
stop @ 77.35
Target contingent upon open trade behavior of GBPJPY
New Week
The run on Friday due to Bernanke's speech bode well for the AUDJPY trade.
It's now well into profitable territory.
I guarded the position with a GBPJPY short, one lot closed +25 and the 2nd for -24 (net +1)
Opened another hedge apx. 10 minutes ago, in case the Yen strength continues.
EURUSD newsletter trade is currently sitting pretty @ +70 pips.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Home, Home on the Range...
I felt Deja Vu in what I was about to post & this is what I found...
Ironic, this is my post Last Friday exactly one week ago:
Friday, August 14, 2009
Home on the Range
Tight ranges in most common risk trades.
I feel like I've been staring at the same numbers for a day now. (because I have)
If I had a guess, it seems as though there's more battling going on between the Dollar & the Yen than anything else. That's just my guess.
Same price on the AUDJPY as entry @ the beginning of the week.
I've been hedging the downside moves w/ GBPJPY shorts.
And so it goes...
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Interest-ing
Hopefully the "big money" feels like earning some interest this week.
I know I'd enjoy it.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Funny
Just recv'd a newletter signal which was near identical to the idea already underway.
I was happy to take the 2 lot trade since the previous trade was already set to break even or run.
Here's what it looks like on the 15m chart.
AUDJPY idea
Long 2 lots @ 78
Stop just below suport @ 77.25
Plan is as follows: 1st target is the descending trendline, which will allow profit to be taken from a counter trend move. If succesful, the stop on the remaining 1 contract will be moved to 77.50 and left to run. This will wash the trade if it breaks down, and create a good long position if the risk appetite & carry-traders return.
Easy Like Sunday Morning
Quite a bit of action for a Sunday morning.
I would have to assume, since I don't have any volume indicators, that prices are moving on low liquidity.
Although, I missed a Guppy line, I'll have patience.
Notice how I use this blog for discipline ;-) ?
Friday, August 14, 2009
Breakdown, Go Ahead & Give It to Me
...Breakdown, honey take me through the night...
That trade was like watching paint dry, on the edge of my seat.
Good r/r is keeping me positive about them all.
net -50 pips on all three trades.
It would've been about 360 pips had they been successful.
Maybe next week!
Home on the Range
Tight ranges in most common risk trades.
I feel like I've been staring at the same numbers for a day now. (because I have)
If I had a guess, it seems as though there's more battling going on between the Dollar & the Yen than anything else. That's just my guess.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Dubyah
With all this talk about the 'shape' of the recovery, be it "W," "U," "V..." is it me, or does the EURUSD pair already show us...?
There's quite a definitive W apparent on the daily, and it's been present for a while now... Shouldn't be a secret to any of us forex traders.
I distinctly remember it, as it was the middle crest which first tripled, & subsequent valley that then liquidated my first live trading account. I'll never forget that as it was probably the most important factor & impetus towards my trading behavior today.
I've learned the extent of what I now know riding this W up and down ever since.
Now of course, it's possible we break down hard from here, in which case the shape has yet to reveal itself. However, the current mystery as to why the market is heading up while seemingly not looking back, could be explained by the recovery already having elapsed. Also, with the way business figures look for the next two quarters, the pickup seems to agree. Granted, the consumer numbers are still atrocious, but what if their crushed retirement accounts reinflate?
Could the bottom be bailout money, and what we're seeing now be a good part of the "smart" money? If this keeps up, Joe Investor would get involved later when his nest egg look good again.
Didn't they say we wouldn't see recovery til it's already happened? Until we see otherwise, that's my story and I'm sticking to it.
State of the State
Here's the current status of the two open trades.
We'll see where the market brings us today. This is a great example of the paradoxical nature of trading. While I'm currently fundamentally bearish along with most agreeing that the rally since March must be overdone, from a technical standpoint I'm bullish.
Confusing, yes. My opinion is that while we can all stand around talking about how overdone the rally is, but if price action continues rising those that don't get involved now are missing some of the best valuations in the long run. Essentially, they miss the bus.
Pretty much, everyone's bluffing, whether it be to themselves or everyone else.
Good trading to all today!
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Interesting Day
FOMC news shook it up and upward bias resumed.
The EURUSD trade is still alive and well, & the 2nd buy stop was triggered just before.
Currently: +48 pips
-16 pips
GBPUSD triggered and fizzled to stop out
-85 pips
AUDJPY triggered at 79.95
Currently: +16 pips
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Selloff
The EURUSD trade hasn't had to take much heat so far, despite the US market selloff. The Yen crosses have taken the beating the hardest. Unfortunately, following the rules of the NickB method got us in a tad early resulting in a stop out on the GBPJPY. That's the nature of it though, if the rules were broken all the time, they wouldn't come in handy very much.
Guppy Scalp Line
Just had a NickB short signal go off. I was a touch late to the party by ten pips, but I'm taking the trade anyhow since it's a bearish trade. It should actually help mitigate some risk from the long newsletter ideas, key word being 'should.'
Short: 158.80
Stop: 159.30
Target: 158.30
50pip R/R
Full Plate
My analysis is going to get a break today.
My newsletter has two bullish trades, one of which we've already entered into on with one lot of EURUSD. The other is for the GBPJPY.
Both trades start with one lot, and have a 2nd trigger for another lot. They share the same targets, @ 1.44 & 1.6970.
Good trading to all.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Lady in red
....it doesn't get more perfect than that. I'd consider myself lucky to get one of those once a month even.
Maximum drawdown on the trade was about 3 pips.
Let's see what tomorrow brings.
Take it, to the limit, one more time...
Limit order @ 160.60
I don't want to risk hitting support @ 160.46
Defense Time
In case of an 11:00 reversal, stop has been moved to lock in a small profit.
In the event we keep running down, a nice profit will be taken around noon.
Swing low, sweet chariot...
...moving the stop to just above the last m15 swing high. Price is bouncing slightly roughly around the 50% fib retrace of Friday's move, making what looks to be a new swing low. Eliminating some risk in case bias shifts and the rally resumes.
Stop: 162.20
Thoughts...
Essentially, I'm trying to take my pound of flesh from the 8:00 a.m. candle. A nice, tall 'Lady in Red' would be great :-) If it switches around to green, I'm back to the sidelines til tomorrow, unless a nice pattern presents itself. I'm going to do some heavy analysis on 8:00 a.m. Guppy candles in the past and see if I can glean any strategy ideas out of it.
Guppy Fade
Short GBPJPY @ 161.75
Stop 162.75
Going to see if and where the correction of Friday's move will take us.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Support Break Update
Looks decent. Anything's possible at this point.
I've added a teal dashed line which follows current price.
GBPJPY support break
I'll be trading a break of the 160.30 level if price shows good upward momentum.
I leave for New Hampshire tomorrow early in the morning, so this'll likely be the only trade left for the week.
Cheers!
My Hands Are Asleep
...from sitting on them.
Today's one of those tough days. Early morning loss, no setup that's my style to take...
In the past I would've compulsively created trade ideas out of the blue, from boredom.
Writing this blog helps me vent on days like this, and solidifies my plan in place.
I should be happy the discipline is showing!
Worth a Shot
GBPUSD stopped out at -125 pips
It would've been a great trade, but the British annoucement took everyone off guard.
BOE Interest Rate
Not sure what the number is yet, but my chart does.
I love how the market reacts.
Bought the pullback on a newsletter idea.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Great Post by Ed Ponsi
| MY NAME IS ED, AND I’M A CAPITALIST |  |  |  |
Cheers from London! It's been an exciting week, complete with visiting dignitaries, rioting in the streets, and the cracking of a major terrorist plot right here in the U.K. I love it here in London, one of the greatest cities in the world, but all things considered, I'm ready to go home! On the Steps of the Bank of England On April 2, one day after the G20 riots in London, I made my way from my hotel to the headquarters of the Bank of England. On the previous day, at that same location, thousands of protesters clashed with police and vandalized a retail office of the Royal Bank of Scotland. When I arrived, a few hundred protesters remained, accompanied by nearly as many police. The walls of the BoE bore graffiti such as "Break the Bank" and "Fight Inflation, Eat the Rich." The protesters I spoke with were young, intelligent, and committed, and they truly seemed to believe that capitalism is the root of all evil. A young lady wore a shirt proclaiming her status as a "Free Range Human." One young man handed out flyers purporting to explain in a rational manner the evils of capitalism and extolling the virtues of communism and anarchy (does it really qualify as anarchy if someone is handing out flyers?). None of the protesters appeared to be over the age of 25. As an unrepentant, lifelong capitalist, I was not upset that these folks were disparaging my way of life. These people were not evil, just misguided and inexperienced in the ways of the world. It's easy to be a committed anarchist when you're living in the basement of your parents' suburban home. These kids don't know that communism enslaves people into poverty, and that for many people around the world, capitalism represents the only hope of freedom. I would love for them to speak with one of the many thousands of people who risked their lives to escape communism for a chance at a better life. I imagine that five years from now, many of those protesters will have children, and will need a place to call home. By then, I wonder how many of them will be seeking loans from – or even working for – the very banks that they now denounce and despise. Perhaps by tasting the rotten fruit of communism, these young lads and ladies will learn how morally bankrupt that failed system truly is. I imagine that down the line, some of them will become staunch free-marketers, once they have seen for themselves that despite its flaws and its wounded reputation, capitalism still is the greatest economic system on earth. |
Gone Fishin'
Today was a great day to take an early loss.
Small in comparison to the gain we took during London's session, it made another profitable day this week. Again, my best week yet since I got serious in December.
At 10 a.m. I called it a day & went to an early lunch. I checked my mobile periodically, and my hunch was confirmed. Today ended up being fairly flat & rangebound for US equities.
AIG popped 63% today, which filled my cousin's coffer with a 2R trade entered yesterday... Gotta get a direct line to his broker, I tell ya ;-)
Trade Closed
Considering the initial target was 50 pips, and we have another long entry set for a break of 162.60, profits were taken at 161.66.
+91 pips
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Guppy Splash
I have a feeling the ascending wedge is going to trigger the long scalp line @ 162.63
Possibly Asia, possibly London.
If not, a leg down will have us sitting on hands.
50 pip 1:1 r/r
GBPJPY Booty Shake
Price action tried to shake us out from getting our booty, but we still succeeded.
The picture's show the wild ride which ensued. I think this is a good example of not 'getting married' to a trade, and being dynamic enough to perceive a shift in sentiment and ride it. This all occured on London's open, and I've seen many examples of this, where price breaks out on the open, only to reverse. It's the classic shakeout/fakeout.
We we're first long on the breakout, and price came within a few pips of target only to immediately drop like a rock. A few switches of direction ended with some small losses until finally we stayed short and rode the price down.
The breakdown is here:
1 lot long -30 pips
1 lot short -11 pips
2 lot long -13.2 pips (-26.4 net)
2 lot short +29 pips & +100 pips (net with two exits)
Trading time: 2:47 a.m. - 4:44 a.m.
Total net: 61.6 pips
GBPJPY idea
Breakout/Pullback scalp
30 pip target on either side
O.C.O. order
1:1 R/R
Long idea aims for prior highs, short idea targets the ascending trendline.
Monday, August 3, 2009
GBPJPY scalp
Long 162.63
Target 163.13
Stop 162.13
This trade anticipates a breakout of a prior high, and also confirms a psych level break at 162. The sentiment this week seems to be green, and after a profitable first day it's easier to go with the flow. Let's rock.
Green Day
Psychological levels are abound.
Data looks nice regarding homes, and cash-for-clunkers seems to be boosting autos.
If institutional & individual money starts flowing in, we could see some nice support established. However, if the rally lacks follow through, I could see this current area turning into a top for another leg down.
AUDJPY success GBPJPY success
A long scalp @ 160.50 was succesful & actually closed in synch with the long AUDJPY trade taken last week.
+276 pips
+50 pips
Target Approaching
Hopefully the momentum in the AUDJPY will continue. Price is currently about 50 pips away from target. Optimism seems to be the tone for the week.
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