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Aussie Long

Newsletter trade.

Long 77.50

Target 80.24

Stop 76.35

I was able to enter at a better price a few pips below @ 9:45pm last night.

A signal was sent out this morning to move stop to 77.70 to lock in profits.

This trade looks good so far, markets are rallying near key psych levels.

Short GBPJPY @ pivot point break

Yawn.

Action's been kinda lackluster today.

I've decided to take a shot if price drops to 155.55

Here lies the pivot point & a 15 minute trendline. A break of both should generate some momentum.

Looking for 50 pips, R/R = 1:1

Overnight Loss

Had a trade which ran about 20 pips & then reversed.

-50 pips

Theme Music: Beck's - Loser

GBPJPY trade closed successfully

This morning triggered a short trade.

entry 155.10

target 154.60

+50 pips

Trading Life

Learning the Art of Trading has brought me more in touch with some of life's finest ironies. Funny how both arenas, life & the market, are full of smoke, mirrors, pain, & glory.

I feel like I'm overflowing with them & I need to let them out. However, in the spirit of not sounding like a babbling fool, I'm going to attempt to distill the more resonant examples and allow their escape sporadically to limit this possibility.

;-)

My first is this:

Sometimes what's "right" is really what "works," and what seems "right" is really wrong.

Is this just utilitarian logic?

Strategy Experiment

15m trendline break

target = some approximation of the prior H4 candle

R/R = 1:1

risk can be reduced by target reduction to taste. a greed-check if you will.

1st trade successful

Loser

Had a short trigger overnight. Unfortunately it was a "picked bottom."

Oh well.

-50 pips.

Re-entry Closed Successfully

......aaaaaand, more wishy-washy price action has us exiting the 2nd trade for +18 pips.

Rough day. GBPJPY caught in an unusually tight range.

I'll take a rough, slightly profitable day rather than an unprofitable day, any day... day... day..

Daaaaaaaay-oh, he say day, he say....

Ok, I'll stop now.

Trade Closed

Price almost hit target and then retraced heavily back toward our entry.

Closed at +2.5 pips for a scratch.

Another scalp line lies right above where we were just targeting, so if the market turns back around we will be back in anyway.

Morning Breakout

Going long GBP/JPY @ 157

50 pips R/R

Psych Levels

Lots of round numbers about...

Nikkei just clenched 10K.

Dow, S&P, & NASDAQ are near 10K, 1K, & 2K respectively.

Markets look overextended, but sentiment has reigned supreme lately.

Home sales & home prices finally have resumed rising in tandem, a good sign of economic health.

Depth

As a geek, this just makes me all warm & fuzzy inside.

It's like I'm driving a hyundai & this is the formula 1 car.

AUDJPY trade closed

Good trade.

Closed the 2nd half (1 lot) just in case there's profit taking before the weekend.

close @ 77.38

+143 pips

market neutral for the first time in a while ;-)

EURUSD long closed

Unfortunately the rally couldn't give the Euro the momentum it need to hit the target of 1.44

Stopped out @ 1.4140 for +40 pips. It would've been +50 pips for the newsletter because I entered slightly late.

Hopefully the Aussie will finish the job.

Trade triggered & closed

GBPJPY

+50 pips

Possible GBPJPY scalp

Long 156.50

Target 157

Stop 156

AUDJPY adjusted

1 lot closed @ 76.35 for +51 pips, 15:19 EST

Stop left in original position, as well as target on remaining lot.

As of 12am EST open lot @ +130 pips

Well excuuuuse me! GBPJPY closed

Price looked ok for a second or two, then ripped upward with violence within minutes.

Hopefully it was a key support, and the risk appetite will return to carry the open long trades.

-50 pips.

Possible Scalp Entry

GBPJPY short 152.35

-50 pips/+50 pips

AUDJPY trade triggered

Long 75.95

Stop 75.25

Target 79

Newsletter trade

GBPJPY support break success

+70 pips.

Bumpy Ride, well worth it.

GBPJPY support break

Short 1 lot @ 152.30

R/R -50/+50

Went against us initially.

Looks like it may come around.

GBPUSD Trade Closed

Trade stopped out early this morning at -130 pips.

EURUSD trade still open currently at +125 pips. Stop moved into profitability @ 1.4140

GBPJPY scalp closed

Momentum pushed the trade up & began to slow.

I debated closing two lots @ +30 pips & leaving the last lot to run, but I decided that since the initial idea was +50 pips on 2 lots & in error I ended up with 3, essentially my 100 pips were collected & I should exit with the gain.

GBPJPY scalp

Interesting mistake...

Entered an order for 155.27.

Triggered, momentum looked o.k. & decided I wanted to add to the position.

Realized after that the initial order was two lots, so now I'm in for three.

Needless to say this trade's being very ACTIVELY managed.

New Colors

Following the lead of some of my influences, I've decided to change up the color scheme of my charts.

Apparently, the background should ease visual fatigue.

I defined the candles a bit better as well.

Cheers.

Tentative Strategy Idea

So I found this indicator out there in cyberspace for TOS & took a look tonight.

It looks like it works quite well actually.

Now, as a newer-newbie, I would've seen how perfect the picks of tops & bottoms looked, and ignored the drawdowns needed to weather the trades shown. I've learned my lesson since those days & have given it further scrutiny.

With the yellow trendline, I mapped out exactly where the ACTUAL entries/exits would be on the candle following the signal that's candle has closed. I found one losing trade (1st one on the chart...) Over one month it's seemed to generate just shy of 4000 pips.

Maximum drawdown seemed to be apx 100-200 pips each directional switch.

Would love feedback on how this looks. The more eyes the better. If anyone gets a different figure, I'd love to hear.

chart

Quick Psych Level Scalp

GBPJPY showing resistance again at 154.

Short 1 lot.

Prepared to take apx 20-30pips heat before we scrap the idea. Target 153.50 & 153 if momentum is shown.

Good day for a pair...

GBPJPY short open @ +90pips

EURUSD long open @ +3pips

Sterling's dropped. Our choice of positioning has made this trade interesting.

Trader Update

EURUSD is 20 pips in the green, up as much as 50 intraday. GBPUSD is flat, which was down most of the day around -60... not enough conviction to add to either.

Tomorrow's stage holds the answer.

Trader Update

Looks like someone opened the bullpen...

Dow's up 75 points, S&P's lifted above 930.

Broad Market Chop Suey

Dow holding ground.

S&P likes 930.

It could be a day to hold all yesterday's gains.

Anything's possible, I could see an afternoon rally or sell off.

Gotta love these times.

GBPUSD triggered

'nuff said

GBPJPY trade closed successfully

closed at loss of momentum near support.

153.78

+44.6 pips

we'll either let the open E/U long bounce and run, or let the G/U take the torch from this trade and relay...

GBPJPY S/R Break

Glanced at the chart & saw a S/R line break by 10 pips

Short 154.22

Stop 154.77

Target 153.72

Rockin' the Newsletter

Long EURUSD 1.4090

Stop 1.3975

Target 1.44

Triggered on pullback.

Short GBPUSD 1.6380

Stop 1.6510

Target 1.6080

Awaiting entry.

Trade Closed

Reversal turned out to be a pause.

-20 pips.

That's my attempt for the day.

Still previous orders pending, no more discretionary scalps ;-)

GBPJPY

...just jumped into a short trade. Price seems to be showing weakness from the run up over the morning. Loosely targeting 153.

If momentum resumes, we're out. Not risking much more than 20 pips.

152 looks like a good buy

If an obvious reversal presented itself here (the circle) at the right time, buying could look good.

Not committing to this.

Perfect S.O.H. (Sit On Hands) Time

Price needs to make a higher low for a good uptrend to be confirmed.

Price has too much support below to go short.

'Nuff said...

A Colleague's Response

...here's what a friend of mine, who is Head of Equities at one of the largest firms in Russia, had to say regarding the global currency post below:

"Cool. i like. everyone should think with a global currency. we don't live in an isolated world anymore, but a full fledged global economy. Anyone, and I mean anyone, can open an internet acct sell USD to EUR...etc. Russia has $400mln in reserves in USD terms that is made up of 50% USD, 45% EUR and 5% JPY. Smart to do as they are well balanced and hedged against global turmoil in that sense. (they are so exposed to oil price that in the end it doesn't help, but it does mitigate some downside)."

Relatively quiet day

Nothing else triggered today which provided a nice relaxing session. Honestly the break was welcomed, especially with a few losses trimming down the nice gains last week. C'est la vie.

GBPJPY trade closed

-50 pips

Just before 8am the trade triggered, and with the lack of momentum following through the early morning, was stopped out about 20 minutes later. Small loss.

Creating Trendline Break Strategy

After having some good success with the NickB method, which I love by the way, I couldn't help but notice that if one cocks their head slightly, the trendlines which develop also provide similar & great opportunities.

I like the 4hr charts used by him, but would also consider moving to a slightly higher timeframe.

My main concern is this:

I'd like to try to come up with some sort of algorithm which calculates target, and thus stop for 1:1 r/r that is based upon a percentage of the prior trend distance & length of time elapsed during trend. This would anticipate the distance of future moves, and also filter out bad trades based on insignificant moves.

If anyone has experience with this sort of thing input would be greatly appreciated. I'm not looking for someone to do the work for me, just a nudge in the right direction. Stories that involve the creation of algorithms with completely unrelated factors to mine are welcomed as well, as it would help my perspective.

Thanks & happy trading!

New Global Currency?

...I posted this on a forum I follow & would love feedback.

My view is that there is already a 'global' currency. It's called, 'currency.' The creation of a NEW currency in which many nations participate in the establishment of, could help ail some of the instability worries many are expressing. This would by no means eliminate the currencies the nations already use. I think the public at large hears talk of this & envisions what currently is occupying their wallets will change. I'm more anticipating a global currency which is held moreso by governments & businesses for purpose of international trade. This could eliminate much of the analysis necessary & pitfalls caused by price volatility which is completely unrelated to their industry. Who would participate in the creation of this type of currency, I think, is the key to understanding how it will affect the markets as we know them.

If anything, it could be a HUGE opportunity for those of us who understand the dynamics of the currency market .vs. Joe Schmoe...

As always though, those participants who are more stable upon inception of said currency obviously should have more 'buying power' & thus a lot of the instability essentially gets 'priced in' to the value. If the new currency is supposed to be more stable for interchanging, wouldn't those that hold more of it still have the upper hand that was present prior to the creation?

I'd love feedback on this as I'm going way out on a speculative limb here...

GBPJPY trade

Our trade idea to the upside looks probable. If triggered, it would be coupled with a 34EMA break which should give it the momentum it will need.

Long 152.45
Target 152.95
Stop 151.95

The Big Picture

Here's the GBPJPY zoomed out apx YTD.

Look how nicely price respects the trendlines.

If price can't return back into the primary channel, things could go uber-bear very fast.

I'll be concentrating on these lines closely.

GBPJPY trendline break

...price looks to be breaking out of the downward channel it's been in since July 1st. No trade placed here, but there's a s/r line further up which we will take long for about 50 pips.

One of my newsletter trades was stopped out early AM for a 150 pip loss (300) on two lots.

Never fun, but you just move on. The loss was slightly bigger than I would have liked making me think I should have skipped it. It was a solid idea however, so I think I did the right thing.

You know...?

...looking back at this week, which was a VERY good one for me, I can't help but get hung up on this one trade I took which I noticed in going over my statement report this wekend. It was a CADJPY trade, which I scoured the blog looking for the reason which I traded it.

Come to find out, it wasn't posted and I know why.

THIS IS MY TRADE OF THE WEEK

Despite the fact that it was a complete scratch trade among many profitable trades this week, upon further scrutiny I realized I opened & closed it within a few minutes. Now, opening it doesn't make me very happy, closing it immediately on the other hand makes me proud.

Simple reversal on a short time frame chart... looked beautiful. However, had I not exited promptly by being conservative with my money management I would have lost BIG. price dropped another 200 pips or so after my exit. I managed to profit 3.5 pips. It drew down, I waited... price went slightly in the green & I jumped out.

You can't get better than that, well..............

Wisdom Part II

"Mountaineer's do not climb to reach the top of the mountain, but pursue the summit in order to climb." - Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi as quoted by Dr Brett Steenbarger in Enhancing Trader Performance

Essentially, trader's don't trade to become rich, they pursue the markets in order to trade.

I like that.

Wisdom

“I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people” - Sir Isaac Newton

After investing in the 'South Sea Bubble'

GBPJPY trade closed successfully

Target reached.

+125 pips

GBPJPY trade opened

Set a short order around 6am for 1 contract.

Triggered around 7:30.

Short 150

Target 148.75

Stop 151.00

AUDJPY

73ish entry

72ish stop

75ish target

newsletter trade for 2 contracts.

Trade triggered & closed

Short GBPJPY triggered and stopped for a small loss of -33 pips.

Deleted all orders in vicinity due to a newsletter trade announcement.

Trade Closed

Stopped out at break even.

Looked like a bounce was forming & bought @ market with a 13 pip stop.

Stopped out as well.

-13 pips

We'll see if a break lower can bring in some pips. If not, it's a good close to the week provided nothing else sets up.

Hmmm

Looks like our breakeven position may be stopped out soon. Moving short order entry to the H4 doji (one candle up) in anticipation of a continuation downward.

Synthetic Pairs continued...

...better late than never. So, say we wanted to trade the Euro, but lately the overall trend has been questionable or the pair is rangebound. Both short & long ideas seem to look equally probable. We could set a long/short 'bracket' & wait for a breakout either way. Sometimes, under these conditions many false breakouts occur. Worst case, it could even trigger both trades, only to have each fail. As price heads towards either break trigger, it must travel towards the outer limits of the range & since there's indecision this causes price to stall and reverse.

Now, normally, if we tightened our entry down we could increase our chance of profitability, but when we do this, we are also decreasing our probability, as they are generally a trade off. This is where the synthetic pair can come in.

What if we were to place a long entry on the EURUSD closer and slightly above where current price lies, allowing us to profit from a moderate move upward. Then, similarly, we place a short entry order on the EURJPY which triggers on a retrace (so both positions enter apx same time) with a similar risk/reward ratio. Theoretically, we're hedging out our Euro risk and what we're left with is a position which is short USD & long JPY. It's almost as if we (I'm in the US) just traveled to Europe & started trading the USDJPY there, with Euros. That's what's really cool about FX trading.

Now, I picked the long/short directional bias assuming that when the USDJPY chart is analyzed this is what it dictates. Of course, if this same chart showed a bearish directional bias, we would do the opposite (short EURUSD, long EURJPY).

Essentially we're trying to profit more from the volatility of the market, rather than directionality. Target's are kept realistic, allowing them high chance of being hit, and stops are loose enough allowing the trade sufficient room to 'breathe.'

Now, by no means does this guarantee success, nothing can in the markets in regards to individual trades. It's completely possibly for both positions to fail using this approach as well. The key is utilizing this when the time is right. A strong trending market is likely to put pressure on both the dollar and the yen since they're both associated with risk aversion.

Hope this is clear, and I welcome any corrections/comments/complaints, etc... !

Target Hit

+50 pips

...in under 10 minutes, no less.

Gotta love that.

Stop moved to break even on remaining contract.

Short Order Edit

Raising short order to 150.75. Stop @ 151.50. Target unchanged.

Reason being, rather than take a scalp line further down, an entry back into the 2nd candle back on the H4 chart looks good. It'll take out the doji one candle prior first, which should add some good downward pressure/momentum.

GBPJPY idea - Part Deux

Keeping remaining long order open.

Also targeting a break below current 5min trendline short for 50 pips @ 150.30.

Price can't seem to break out & up, so we may be able to catch some bearish pips on the way down.

GBPJPY idea

Looks like you could have replayed our succesful trade again in the last few hours.

I'm going to target a similar move upward on a break of 151.50

This time I'm using 2 contracts, one with a 50 pip target, the other with a target I will determine if we're able to move stop to breakeven.

GBPJPY trade closed successfully

price retraced and I bought another contract @ 150.75 after the bounce.

+50 pips

+28 pips

______

+78 pips total

good results for tonight. will watch what price does overnight & figure out a plan for tomorrow's US session.

GBPJPY range trade

price has been sitting in a nice 100 pip range for a few hours.

targeting a break up or down at 150.55 or 149.50, respectively.

stop/target: 50 pips

CADJPY trade closed

The newsletter this originated from sent an advisory to move stop & target down for a move lower, unfortunately I didn't get to the computer in time to adjust & the trade hit the original target. Still a good profit.

+193 pips

EURUSD trade closed

-70 pips.

Currently our CADJPY short is open with about 100 pips.

GBPJPY scalp

...was able to pick up 50 pips today on a psych level scalp.

GBPJPY was looking itchy to break 153 short during early afternoon, and it did.

Targeted 152.50 successfully. Since then, it's descended to 152.10 & retraced back up to 152.50ish.

CADJPY short

1/2 closed.

stop moved to prior swing high on the 4 hour chart on 1 remaining contract.

Parody

Saw this posted on another blog and had to share. Hilarious.

H4 EURUSD analysis

Bullish channel past 2 weeks, ending in a breakout downward.

Price can't seem to decide whether it wants to form a bear flag continuation or an ascending wedge in favor of the bulls.

Thoughts?

Trade Update pre 11am reversal

short CADJPY +10 pips

long EURUSD +63 pips

so far today the multidirectional approach is working.

1.40 is the line in the sand

EURUSD looks poised to break it. Today's US market action will determine how this trade is going to play out.

Synthetic Pairs

...they fascinate me. I'm going to talk about these tomorrow. Seemingly complex, they're really more simple than one may think.

ASIA resistance

EURUSD has drifted upward & is now finding some resistance at 1.40. ~ +37pips

Low volume has us hoping that this'll be temporary.

No trigger on the short CADJPY yet, but this could go either way. (like everything lately)

Euro looks good

EURUSD trade is rallying as I leave for lunch.

Currently +28 pips

GBPUSD Trade Closed

Unfortunately we were stopped out on the GBPUSD trade. Hopefully the upward momentum will drive the EURUSD trade up into profitable territory where it'll stay. It's just as likely that it'll slam back down & stop us out with the recent volatility.

Short 1.6190

Stop 1.6270

-80 pips

Wild Market Day

Down around 100 points in the morning, the Dow's begun showing green for the day. I mentioned to a friend at the beginning of last week that I thought S&P's could range within 880-950. So far this looks to be holding true. These types of days seem typical lately, very sharp moves followed by tight consolidation. We'll see what the afternoon brings. Back down? Flat? Rally? It's all possible.

CADJPY stopped out

The trade we held for about a week and a half was finally stopped out. News on the purchase of trillions of Yen broke the support held. Good thing our GBPJPY short scalp was in place. It allowed us to close our short Yen position and quickly profit from the drop. This is why planning ahead for unseen events is the key to actual success in this challenge. Anticipate everything, expect nothing.

Trades Opened

GBPUSD short 1.6190

stop 1.6270

target 1.5860

EURUSD long 1.3940

stop 1.3870

target 1.4200

newsletter trades which triggered around 3am.

Trade Successful

GBPJPY dropped like a rock thru London trading & triggered our short at 154.01 at 3:04am. Our 50 pip target was reached at 4:03am. Great trade.

Orders are set for the week. The market's really 'lit the crack pipe' as of late, to quote one of my favorite analysts. For right now, it's all about anticipating what the market CAN do, because what we THINK it can do is only going to get us into trouble. The market's always right, and we can only anticipate what may be, because what "should" be is only our opinion.

So, I missed a great scalp idea by NickB tonight, on the GBPJPY. Good times with some old friends kept me away from my screens. I guess them's the breaks. It's unfortunate that Sunday night produced a good trade, as this is usually not the case. I guess my diligence will have to be in full effect the rest of the week to make up for my 'slackin' on Sunday night. Good trading to all!

EUR/USD setup

BUY stop 1.4ish

STOP 1.39ish

T1 1.41ish

T2 1.44ish

2 lots

ish's due to it being a newsletter trade. no infringing on my peeps.

Out

It looks like a new symmetrical wedge is going to form on the GBP/JPY H4 chart.

Not a time to be scalping.

We'll see.

Great night!

Dueling Banjos

Look at the twin candles.

Fight to the max.

Considering canceling entry order if there's no conviction soon.

One last hurrah

I told you I'd get suckered.

Long trigger 2 lots GBP/JPY 157.45

Stop 157.00

Target 50 pips (actively manage according to price action)

Close positions

Short 157.266

Exit 157.139

+25.4 pips

Closed opposing long entry order on the sheer fact that some good pips were collected & I've learned my lesson before by handing them all back. If another setup comes along I'll consider re-entering. I'll also document it better, I wasn't planning on trading just now but volatility lured me in.

Asia-Pac Volatility

Pulling a few quick scalps with the acivity that just stirred up.

Currently Short 2 lots GBP/JPY 157.266

Buy trigger to go long 3 lots (net +1 lots) @ 157.55

Closed positions :

long 156.93 157.10 +17 pips

long 157.15 157.08 -7 pips

The Fight for Independence

...gotta love the good fight.

Pressure

Still lots of downward pressure on the CAD/JPY trade. Price is flirting heavily with the bottom of the channel. Getting stopped out is quite a possibility, though it should be safe. If today's selloff was temporary, the large move down should correct heavily and put us back in the money and en route to target again. Happy 4th to all, have a great, safe weekend!

Bleeding

Market's rolling over hard now as today's data is digested more. My long-term CAD/JPY broke down through it's ascending support and is looking to head to the bottom of the channel. Frustrating to see yesterdays gain erase , but holding it since last Wednesday has already tempered my patience on this trade. The market is always right, all we can do is try to agree with it.

Now's a time best for good ol' S.O.H. (sitting on hands) A great excuse for a video game ;-)

Non-Farm Payroll

Traders sought safer waters after todays announcement. The GBP/JPY & CAD/JPY have corrected back to their ascending trendlines. We'll see what Wall St traders think today after the open. As of now, things still look bullish after the week of consolidation. However, a further push downward today could change that.

Cable Pre NFP view

GBP/USD

Looking at 1.6335 to sell, and 1.6460 to buy. 50 pip stop loss. Targets will be based on price action.

Trade Successful

+50 pips

Stop 159.30

Entry 158.80 1:58am

Exit 158.30 3:39am

H4 & M1 charts shown

...bumpy ride.

A look at the 1 minute chart since entry shows the volatility which triggered the trade.

Price broke the wedge, & ran back up into it fairly high. Now it's come back down & seems to be trying to get through the resistance of the wick lows seen below the wedge on the larger timeframe. If it succeeds, the target should be no problem. If it continues to have difficulty, I'll consider exiting for a small profit/loss in order to get some rest before NFP.

Short trade triggered at 1:58 am. Long order removed.

consolidation pre NFP

Price is behaving as one would expect before Non-Farm Payroll annoucement tomorrow. The last three H4 candles have been inside bars, ranging since 1pm yesterday on the GBP/JPY. Hopefully volatility will trigger a long EUR/USD idea for tomorrow.

...and we wait.

downside bias seems likely, but it's still any man's game.

Symmetrical Wedge Breakout

Buy GBP/JPY 159.50

Stop 159.00

Target 160.00

or

Sell GBP/JPY 158.80

Stop 159.30

Target 158.30

Upon trigger of one, the other order is cancelled.

Removing this trigger, as it was a scalp which is no longer valid.

Buy GBP/JPY 158.40

Stop 158.15

Target 159.00