Year In Review

If .8950 breaks and can hold lower, essentially we have a bounce off the bottom of the bull channel on the Daily chart. The failure at .9000 will confirm. Next major support would be .8893 at the 100SMA.

Are two pictures worth two-thousand words?

Looking Good So Far...

So the small short I attempted was unsuccesful, and rightly so as it was an impulse trade.

-31 pips

However, the trade which I had planned has behaved well thus far. Price spiked on the retest of the broken neckline and broke pretty hard into the 16:00 GMT price fix. Word was that there was a large imbalance of excess sellers and events unfolded accordingly.

Price traveled to a low right near .8900 and subsequently bounced. A bomb scare in Times Square squeezed the dollar bringing the AUD right back near entry, but it seems as though that is subsiding now....

I'm moving my stop down 25 pips to .9052 to take some risk off the table.

Unrealized P/L: +39.5 pips

Short at market .8977 Stop: .9077 Target: .8600

Asia Play

.8860 broke, so I opened a small short position on the retrace with a stop @ .8899

Entry: .8869

Possible Pullback Pattern Pending

While the retail market closed for the holiday around .8825, interbank trade brought the pair up near session highs at .8850-60

It's very likely we'll get stopped on the open today, in which case there are some very attractive short entry areas to watch for.

On a H6 chart, the medium-term Triangle/H&S pattern has it's neckline at ~.8970. This is the bottom of the range of interest. Above there, a 144EMA rests at .9040 and further up lies the top of the bear channel at .9060. If a fib range is calculated from the last downswing, this .8960/9060 range intersects the 50% & 61.8% retracement lines.

Most likely scenario, I think, is that the bearish bias holds but the unknown variable is how deep a retracement we'll see.

Keep in mind, long term trends can take long term 'breathers,' and that trend is still up-up-up since March. It's possible at any minute that the bulls will stampede the forest, sending the bears back to hibernation.

All I Want for Christmas is...

... a very heavy Aussie. It's pushing towards new lows as I speak. Moving stop to breakeven which is apx an ATR length away from the lows.

I'm so tempted to take profits and run, but the trade is only yielding a ~1:1 r/r ratio right now. This would maintain my Sharpe ratio, but not improve it at all. I need a good 200-400 pip trade to really start beefing up the stats.

update: stop moved to .8870

Holiday Sleigh Ride

Bearish sentiment has remained, keeping the pair below .8900 which bodes well for the trade. Dow's up near +100 for the day, and the Aussie doesn't seem to mind.

Moving stop to .8940 to remove some risk. This is today's low plus some ATR based wiggle room. If it nears there a re-entry should be planned.

100 SMA Touch

Price has touched the 100 sma on the daily chart. There's been a slight bounce, but not much conviction. The reason for entry last night was that price broke through it's 24-day lows, something it hasn't done since July 8th. Indicators were much more bullish on that occasion, which led it to rise to where we're at now.

Call Me Johnny-Come-Lately

Short on the large head-n-shoulders @ .8895

Stop: .9000

Target: .8500

Bonk

Schtopped out.

-116 pips

Stop Adjustment

moving up to .8940 to reduce some risk.

UPDATE: Reducing target to .9130 as well. The market seems to be saying that without good surprises, no rallies.

I agree with Jason (FXCM) that the Fundamentals are getting stale, however the same if not worse could be said for the US despite all their posturing.

Long View

Entry: .9055

Stop: .8905

Target: .9330

Looks Can Be Deceiving...

-30 pips

took the short reversal @ .9120

S: .9150

T:.9070

Idea Is Now Live

....Looked like a decent trade.

I've taken it live.

Entry: .91124

Intraday Long (demo)

E: .9110

S: .9080

T: .9160

Exit on First Sign of Strength

The position reached a high of ~+16pips. I think the original target may be a bit ambitious for a Friday after noon.

Currently up 6 pips. Hopefully we can see .9130/40 by days end.

UPDATE: Price reached .9123 and stalled. Exit for +13 pips.

Have a great weekend!

Demolicious

Went long on a bounce near P.P. support .9110

Stop: .9080

Target: .9160

Short Bus

currently short .9164 as of 11:16 right at the Person's Pivot resistance.

Will exit on next clear 'voodoo' buy signal.

Price currently trading .9140/50

(DEMO)

Update: closed for -2 pips

Fake Plastic Trees

....scored +6 (fake) pips today! (demo account)

I'm currently playing around with an intraday strategy again, 15m charts with Persons Pivots and some crazy voodoo hoo-doo buy sell signals.

We All Gotta Lose Sometime...

After apx. 1 1/2 hours of torture (price flirting with my stop,) I finally got booted a few minutes ago.

-101.7 pips

Now's a good opportunity to sit back, relax and re-evaluate the market from the sidelines. It'll take some progression in order to really determine whether conditions are range-bound, or possibly even bearish.

Thank Ye Bernanke...

...hopefully the dovish stance bodes well for the USD carry.

Not By the Hair of My Chinny-Chin-Chin...

Anything's possible at this point...

NFP Schizophrenia

NFP was a huge surprise, and though it is a bullish sign for the economy people raced to the dollar suspecting rates may be hiked much sooner than previously thought.

Stop was triggered at .9180 for +50 pips

I've re-entered at .9150 just now, with a stop at .9050

Hopefully, people have bought enough dollars already today, and the positive sentiment can return giving the trade some tailwinds. Also, I'm noticing a pattern that a lot of the AUD's action for the week is happening during Interbank trade, pre-retail hours on Sunday. Those crafty folks are getting the move and then sitting pretty while everyone else scrambles all week for 10 pips.

Have a great weekend!

Nine One Eight Oh

STOP MOVE

knock knock knockin on 93's dooooooor....

Meager As It May Be...

...it's profit time.

Stop moved to .9140.

Good Entry

In the spirit of keeping my win rate up, I'm moving stop to break even.

Rates Up Down Under

Got a fill at .9130 at the rate decision. Up about 20-30 pips instantly.

Let's see what happens.

Stop @ .9030

IB Short Covering Is My Bet...

...I drew some lines while lusting to buy the charts & decided against it. Had there been a short squeeze mixed with buying pressure the IB moves pre-retail would've been larger, I think.

There should be an opportunity to get in at a better price soon.

Me thinks me drinks on this fine Sunday eve!

Cheers.

Last significant correction ran all through June.

The current correction hasn't extended as far in price or duration... yet. Behind both corrections are very similar price patterns. Impulsive at first, smoothed, then again impulsive and finally the correction. Both bull runs spanned ~14 weeks & corrected for ~6.

Will price behave similarly after a little more bear action?

Sea Change or Much Needed Breather?

The Aussie broke it's trendline from March. After bottoming around .8950, price has now started to ease back up to the broken line.

Will it bounce back down & confirm a switch in sentiment?

Will it remain stuck in the .89-.94 range?

Was it merely a headfake to clear out the excessive longs built up?

Only time will tell... I'll take my 25 pips and run to the sidelines for now!

Stop Adjustment

Stop moved to .9130

The Trend is Your Friend...

The Equity markets pouted all yesterday morning on the fresh data, only to bring the indexes close to unchanged in the last hour or so of the session.

Overnight, some Australian news came out which blasted the AUDUSD through the .9210 resistance. It also cleared .9250-60, which is now acting as support.

A stop move is in order soon. Where, I'm not sure yet.

Happy Holidays to all!

How do you say "Toro" in Australian?

Data Day

......tons of figures coming out today should make for a bumpy ride. GDP & Case Schiller in the a.m. & then crude & gas at the close.

Should be fun!

Lines in the Sand

So far, .9100 was well guarded. If/when there's a pullback, it would be nice to see .9150 and/or .9200 behave similarly.

The daily & weekly charts show what seems to be a nice clean bounce from their trendline/MA support. There was much skepticism regarding the risk trade last week, so hopefully some dry powder is out there to keep the bids coming...

Even Steven...

....is where the stop loss is moved to.

No sense in letting an early winner turn loser.

Bullish action on the weeks open was typical throughout the last trade. However, it also usually led to fairly weak price action in the week to follow.

A Horse Named Trigger...

...trade open.

Currently trading at .9120

Let's see what opportunity brings!

Here's the Plan, Stan

Entry: .9101

Stop: .8999

Target: .9750 (stop actively managed along the way)

Daily Outlook: Uptrend line since mid March lines up with entry. Stop placement lines up currently with the 50MA, which will rise if the long term uptrend persists.

H4 Outlook: Entry lines up with the 61.8 fib retracement of the last run from 11/01-11/16.

(.8905-.9405)

Stop, In the Name of Love....

Finally stopped out at 3:15 am.

What a wild ride it was.

20 days, my longest trade held yet...

Time to sit back and plan my nest move.

+200 pips (10.3 pips interest)

Mr T. likes gold...

....but sees a double top.

I agree. If the bears keep up we might get stopped.

WWTD?

Tough Call

"...today was a good day." - Ice Cube

While it's tempting after today's gains to slide the stop up a tad, I've decided against it. We tapped a high at .9405. Since then price action has held stable, but looks as though it may test the range we just broke out of again. Keeping the stop ~150 pips below current ranges has worked for two weeks, while over-tightening would have booted us a few times over.

On the daily charts, the most recent swing low is still .9200 . There was a brief pullback since then in which .9260 held, but the correction was sideways and not the more healthy "two steps forward, one step back." While seemingly bullish, we could retest this range to shake out the "weak" longs. If it is, in fact, bullish then there's nothing to worry about. If it turns out to be a true loss of momentum then we're stopped out at a moderate 2:1 R/R ratio.

.9370/9400's the new .9320/60

Stop Adjustment

....currently at .9199

.9260 is closest support level.

Weekly Wrap Up

Broad market strength kept the trade afloat at the beginning of the week. Since the AUDUSD jumped out of the gate on Sunday afternoon, not much steam was left for during the week.

Yesterday was a temporary scare in my opinion. People are wary of any signs of overextension, and rightfully so after the GFC last year.

The problem with looking through last years 'lens' as far as valuations are concerned is that it's a stale view. Yes, it may seem alarming that asset prices are seemingly sprinting back to pre-crisis levels, but they're doing this on the back of a steadily declining dollar.

10,000 on the DOW is not the same as the last time we reached that level... The amount of Dollars that have been injected into the economy, and more importantly STILL being injected into the economy with no plan to rest for months to come will continue to provide tailwinds to risk appetite.

I'm in no way an expert, but I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to see that the good ol' greenback people swapped their assets for last year, is by no means the same greenback you'll get if you decide to do the same today...

Have a great weekend!

More Jobs!

...yet another surprise month of the Australian economy adding both full & part-time jobs.

This fares well for our position.

Fun Trade

AUDUSD is making new highs.

Stop moved to .9162

Currently a bull tomahawk is forming... (M5 chart)

Trade well!

Red Bull

...stop moved to .9142

All is Good in the Hood; +1.2% today......

Bull Flag

Here's a view from the H4 chart.

Entry on 10/29 is denoted by the green vertical line.

A nice bull flag has formed, hopefully lending credibility to our view.

A correction should happen soon, and it's tidiness or lack thereof will hint at the next direction of the move.

Safeguard

The USD seems to be the carry trade vehicle for now....

That being said, the obvious trade is usually not so good in the short term.

So far, our trade is a good one. In order to protect that, I'm moving the stop to .9085

This will lock in ~75 pips in case we get a break down and the range from the last month holds.

In the event of seeing another big green weekly candle form, the stop will be moved up further.

Currently the trade is up 245 pips. Appetizing, but this one is for the long haul. The trade has generated 4 pips from the interest alone.

I'd say I won't consider another idea until this one fails, or is up safely near 500 pips.

So Far, So Good...

Things appear to be holding steady.

We'll see what the afternoon brings...

NFP Trading Plan

If AUDUSD...

a) Crashes through the stop, sit on hands for cue on next direction.

b) Hits stop and stalls, look to re enter on signs of strength.

c) Rallies, then falls, keep stop at breakeven

d) Rallies, and holds, move stop to .9100 (~+100 pips)

G'Day Mate.

This should be an interesting morning.

The infamous NFP...

Aussie is waking up nicely. Price just recently broke the .9150 level, next stop .9180.

If the dollar rallies there's now a good cushion to sit on. If it falls, we're sitting pretty.

Stop moved to breakeven +1.

Trade well!

Don't You Eat That Yellow Snow!

The 5 minute chart shows big footprints taking profits, but a perceptible tailwind seems to hold fast on all of them.

The long term view on the weekly chart still show a green bias.

Support

Choppy as it may be, the uptrend line on the daily charts is holding. It should protect from a drop below the low .89's

Buy the Rumor, Sell the News...

Perfect example. With the .25% rate already 'baked in' we saw the AUDUSD 'throw up in it's mouth' a little.

I'm keeping the stop in order to accommodate volatility. Hopefully we'll see a leveling and then some smoother price action (upwards) to come.

A clean break after some pressure at .9150 would be a good sign. I'd look for that are to become support after as well, which would be a good time to move the stop & take some risk off the table.

What a Wild Ride...

....it's a risk rollercoaster.

The market has officially 'lit the crackpipe,' to quote one of my favorite traders.

easy like sunday morning?

.....apparently, all I can do from the blackberry is write titles.

My point was to be ironic, as the AUDUSD had dropped almost 100 pips in early Sunday trade.

Since then it's rallied back to .9040 and is dangling.

I have no idea what to think. My only assumption is that the IB market is bigger than I, and that players there have their own motives.

I stay strong in my convictions and look to volatility for aid, not pain.

Good Luck!

Play It Again Sam

...we were stopped out for a gain of 50 pips.

I immediately placed a buy order @ .9000 again which didn't get filled. As the market bounced I was able to fill at .9008

Stop loss @ .8899

AUDUSD currently ranging between .9007-.9022

Stop, (Hopefully no) Drop, & Roll

Risk has become appetizing again.

Stop moved to .9050

Cheap Trick

This week has been 'ugh.'

I don't feel so bad, as it seems from word on the street it's not so easy whether one is dollar bearish or bullish.

The precipitous drop in AUDUSD has led me to get in long at .9000

It's a nice round number and a fairly decent correction from the recent rally. If the H4 ascending trendline holds between .8900 & .8940 we'll be good.

Stop at .8899

Eat My Shorts

....missed the buy fill this afternoon by 1.5 pips

I'm feeling a bit bearish for the moment.

Shorts it is...

Buyer Beware

Stopped for a small loss on today's trade.

I'll be a buyer again if price reaches .9125 for sure, and if it breaks .9200 again an entry will be considered.

Brazilian Wax

Rumor has it, the Brazilian Central Bank is buying dollars today, giving it quite a boost when combined with other factors.

Commodities are weak as well.

VIX is up 8% as we speak

Filled

Long @ .9200

Stop near .9165

Who says Monday's suck?

Currently long AUDUSD @ ~.9190 (+86 pips)

Stop moved to lock in profits @ .9240 (+50)

Re-Entry order below to buy on dip @ .9225 w/ stop @ .9190

Hopefully the Hawks down-under will continue flying.

Good Week

Walked away from the week up apx. +70 pips.

At one point I was up 200 pips, & I wish I had closed.

That's how we learn.

Wanna Wrassle ??

...the AUDJPY sure does.

Pretty much broke even on the see-saw, which was the last three days.

It seems the Dollar is the funding currency en vogue.

Yen strength is making trading that pair a bit bumpy.

Long AUDUSD.

Let's see if this can work a little better.

I put my thing down, flip it and reverse it

...quoting Missy keeps me in good spirits.

We'll try a different direction today after being stopped out.

If a tight stop isn't enough, we'll sit out the rest of the day & look for sentiment around Asia open.

Good Trade

Stop lies just below "Camarilla" pivots.

Price seem to be testing upper intraday resistance.

AUDJPY long

Taking a small position, with a small stop.

Entry: 81.50

Stop: 81.07

Target: 83.90

(moving stop to +10 pips if price nears the 82.00 zone)

Much Needed

I was able to pick up another 30 pips during the Asian session Thursday night. That washed most of the losses for the week, allowing the 100 pip trade to go to the bank.

Will the AUDJPY be able to continue it's upward blast? Will it retrace before resuming? Will it reverse?

Key levels I'm paying attention to are:

Current Short Term Range: 80.50-81.50

Major Support: 76.85-77.00

Possible Target area: 83.50

How clean price action is will dictate the action for the week.

Fosters

.......Australian for Bull.

I closed for +100 pips.

Stalking another entry...

Yee-Haw

Aussie's add ~40K jobs...

Riding the wave...

"I'm a loser baby..."

"...so why don't you kill meeee." -Beck

While it is very frustrating to see a trade go south, more so especially when one is stopped out on a reversal, all one can do is learn.

The last two weeks have been absolutely horrid as far as win-ratio is concerned. If I was less experienced, I'd take this very personally. This is one of those periods where it really seems that the "market is out to get me."

What can be learned from it is this: Entries have been taken on signs of strength & breaks of key levels. Where this has worked against us is it was based on a continuation of the massive bull strength which began in March. Rather than leap forward, as anticipated, the market has been showing signs of weakness and/or consolidation. The naysayer's have gained back control after a long period of them scratching their heads as to where the strength was coming from.

Now, when you combine bulls taking profits & bears anticipating a drop, it's probably not the best environment to be buying breakouts. In hindsight, which as we know is always 20/20, a better strategy would have been to buy dips.

Also, I've noticed intraday that Dollar correlation to the equity markets has been unraveling, and the normal inverse relationship showed itself much more in the Yen. A novice like me can only guess this is evidence of the 'Dollar-as-world-reserve-currency' dilemma manifesting itself.

Next week will be a 'paper trading' week in order to reestablish my bearings.

Longview Avenue

My newsletter had some good ideas which I took.

Currently long EURUSD & GBPUSD

USDJPY trade is down slightly, but not as much as the other pairs are up.

Currently apx~ +35 pips (net)

Dollar Dollar Yen Y'all Part II

Stopped on AUDUSD

Long @ market

Stop 88.50

Target 95.45

Stop and Go

Stopped out of the AUDUSD long for -63 pips.

Reversed now short @ .8617

Stop: .8700

Target: .8300

Looking for a long term correction.

EURUSD looks ok long after 1.4700

Fresh Week

The dollar trade stopped out on Friday as well.

Oh well.

Attempting a 4H trendline break strategy this week. Watching USDJPY, GBPUSD, GBPJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD, & AUDJPY

AUDUSD broke the TL upward near close on friday. It's retraced a good amount since, but had we entered on the open of the current candle per the method's rules the trade would still be live. Since there's an opportunity to get in at a better price, we opened a trade @ market .8667 with a target of 130 pips. Stop loss is set just below most recent swing low. If that's breached I'll reverse to short.

EURUSD is the only other pair which is close to an entry. If it breaks the downward TL @ 1.4720 and can close above it by 8pm tonight we'll take a long entry on this pair.

Key levels to watch for the other pairs:

USDJPY 91.00

GBPUSD 1.6350

GBPJPY 149-150

AUDJPY - needs to form a new swing low to confirm a downtrend.

Happy Trading!

AUDJPY long

Quick loss.

-120 pips

Bought on the break of 80.05

Successfully picked a top & was stopped out @ 78.85

Dollar Dollar Yen Y'all

Going long at the bottom of a bearish channel. Targeting what will be near the top of the channel adjusted for time.

E: 91

S: 89.75

T: 84.85

Sell to Close

AUDJPY + 72.5 pips

Re-Entry @ 80.05 stood pending all day. We'll save that trade for if a breakout occurs.

Contemplating an entry idea short too, as there's pretty strong resistance between 79.60 & 80.00

Stop Adjustment

78.95

minimizing risk for the week due to GBPJPY loss

Reversed Position

News yesterday stopped us out of the GBPJPY long.

AUDJPY showed neither bullish, nor bearish tendencies yesterday.

Newfound fuel for the optimism train has been found in Bernanke's comments.

Long @ 78.90

Target 80.99

Stop @ 77.80

Waffle Trade

Long GBPJPY @ 151.29

Short AUDJPY @ 78.43

R/R on both apx. 2.5:1

Limit Reached.

Sometime yesterday our limit of 77.70 was hit.

+100 pips

Awaiting some direction after US equity markets open. Long looks good on the daily charts, but I'm holding out for more conviction.

While we're at it...

...you know, with this recovery stuff...

Anyone remember the social security mess?? Have we forgotten that the 'normalcy' we are struggling so hard to return to is full of lots of old, familiar problems? Are we X'ers and younger going to let the Boomer's just waltz in and drain what pittance is left from those sorry coffers, allowing this while we stand by merely as spectators waiting for new seasons of LOST & House??

More importantly, why are we still willingly paying into a system without a fight, which the majority accepts as 'broken?' Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather be fending off geriatrics rioting in the streets than vigorous, youthful, angry poor. Call me calloused. Maybe I just don't want to be the one in the street. Maybe I'm just salty, as my generation hasn't even had the chance to screw anything up on our own yet. We've been too busy buying hollow dreams marketed & sold to us by the boomers, without looking at the expiration dates on the bottom of the packages.

Forget repackaged toxic assets, the downfall of our younger generations WILL materialize if we continue to purchase repackaged toxic dreams.

While the punks & metalheads are too busy doing stadium tours & licensing guitar hero tracks, the MC's are taking out second mortgages on their bling & licensing ringtones, the emo scene is still just whining & doing commercials for freecreditreport.com, who does that leave? OUR generation's proprietary, old-faithful, whistleblowing watchogs are no longer reliable. Remember the stink Morrison put up when Firestone wanted 'Light My Fire?' Nowadays, much akin to the 'straight-to-dvd' movie, the ink isn't even dry on the album cover (wait, are those even around anymore?) before it's sold off to the marketing industry. "Showwww meee what I'm looookin' foorrrrrr..."

I'm no expert, and surely I'm not claiming to have any answer. The only thing I can think of is to beat them to the punch now, and sell what they're going to be liquidating, and buy what they're going to need. I'm merely trying to hope-out-loud that we younger folk don't get hoodwinked by what Boomer's may define as 'recovery.' We have a long road ahead of us...

Oh, by the way, I'm short AUD/JPY ;-)

AUDJPY short

small size.

short @ market

stop: 79.67

target: 78.43

Oh Suuuuuuure...

Murphy's Law:

The moment you start demo trading, your drawdown will end and you'll make the trade you were attempting for three weeks successfully.

Haha, happy Labor Day everyone!

Enjoy!

Vacation

I've been lightly demo trading while I analyze my strategy a bit. The timing seems good as it'll let this pullback develop properly, or form into a turn downward with some staying power.

AUDJPY Long Term Ascending Wedge

If this is broken in the coming sessions, serious conviction is behind our trade. Patience will have paid off.

Possible 2nd entry

If price breaks to the upside I have an entry @ 78.35

Trade the Plan

Today's really all about holding the long term lot I've had.

A large marktet correction today will most likely boot us from the trade.

If that's the case I'll look to be a buyer again @ 77.00

Apples & Pares

Pared gains from this morning.

No more trading for the day.

Existing AUDJPY lot from last week still open.

Still bullish.... for now. I WILL collect interest if it kills me..... not really, just till my sentiment changes ;-)

Negligible losses defending the position today, apx -20 pips.

Guppy Trigger Adjustment

Very volatile market today.

Moved protective short trigger to 154.15

Yen Roll Over

The yen is breaking down nicely in favor of our AUDJPY trade.

Stop on the 2nd lot is moved now to 78.68

This greatly lowers the risk, and sits below what looks to be a good support level.

If it breaks through, then the trade is invalidated now anyway.

Guppy Short Part Deaux

Pulled +36 pips from the 1st lot.

2nd broke even.

re-entered short 1 lot just now @ 154.50 to protect the 2 lots out on the aussie.

tight stop @ 154.68

Guppy Limit Move

Momentum is picking up to the downside. Extending T1 to 154.05.

Visual Aid

Aussie Add

Added 1 lot to position @ 78.85

stop @ 77.35

Target contingent upon open trade behavior of GBPJPY

Guppy Short

154.56

2 lots

T1 30 pips

T2 100 pips (stop move to b/e)

stop 154.86

AUDJPY stop adjustment

moved to break even +1

GBPJPY closed

+36 pips

Taking EURUSD Profits

Newsletter close due to lack of follow through.

+117 pips

New Week

The run on Friday due to Bernanke's speech bode well for the AUDJPY trade.

It's now well into profitable territory.

I guarded the position with a GBPJPY short, one lot closed +25 and the 2nd for -24 (net +1)

Opened another hedge apx. 10 minutes ago, in case the Yen strength continues.

EURUSD newsletter trade is currently sitting pretty @ +70 pips.

Home, Home on the Range...

I felt Deja Vu in what I was about to post & this is what I found...

Ironic, this is my post Last Friday exactly one week ago:

Friday, August 14, 2009

Home on the Range

Tight ranges in most common risk trades.

I feel like I've been staring at the same numbers for a day now. (because I have)

If I had a guess, it seems as though there's more battling going on between the Dollar & the Yen than anything else. That's just my guess.

Same price on the AUDJPY as entry @ the beginning of the week.

I've been hedging the downside moves w/ GBPJPY shorts.

And so it goes...

Interest-ing

Hopefully the "big money" feels like earning some interest this week.

I know I'd enjoy it.

Lines in the Sand

78.50

79.00

Funny

Just recv'd a newletter signal which was near identical to the idea already underway.

I was happy to take the 2 lot trade since the previous trade was already set to break even or run.

Here's what it looks like on the 15m chart.

AUDJPY T1 hit

Entry Detail

The Bigger Picture

AUDJPY triggered

T1 : 78.49

Stop move to 77.50 if target's hit

AUDJPY idea

Long 2 lots @ 78

Stop just below suport @ 77.25

Plan is as follows: 1st target is the descending trendline, which will allow profit to be taken from a counter trend move. If succesful, the stop on the remaining 1 contract will be moved to 77.50 and left to run. This will wash the trade if it breaks down, and create a good long position if the risk appetite & carry-traders return.

Guppy Scalp Line Hit

short @ 153.80

50 pip r/r

Easy Like Sunday Morning

Quite a bit of action for a Sunday morning.

I would have to assume, since I don't have any volume indicators, that prices are moving on low liquidity.

Although, I missed a Guppy line, I'll have patience.

Notice how I use this blog for discipline ;-) ?

Breakdown, Go Ahead & Give It to Me

...Breakdown, honey take me through the night...

That trade was like watching paint dry, on the edge of my seat.

Good r/r is keeping me positive about them all.

net -50 pips on all three trades.

It would've been about 360 pips had they been successful.

Maybe next week!

Home on the Range

Tight ranges in most common risk trades.

I feel like I've been staring at the same numbers for a day now. (because I have)

If I had a guess, it seems as though there's more battling going on between the Dollar & the Yen than anything else. That's just my guess.

Dubyah

With all this talk about the 'shape' of the recovery, be it "W," "U," "V..." is it me, or does the EURUSD pair already show us...?

There's quite a definitive W apparent on the daily, and it's been present for a while now... Shouldn't be a secret to any of us forex traders.

I distinctly remember it, as it was the middle crest which first tripled, & subsequent valley that then liquidated my first live trading account. I'll never forget that as it was probably the most important factor & impetus towards my trading behavior today.

I've learned the extent of what I now know riding this W up and down ever since.

Now of course, it's possible we break down hard from here, in which case the shape has yet to reveal itself. However, the current mystery as to why the market is heading up while seemingly not looking back, could be explained by the recovery already having elapsed. Also, with the way business figures look for the next two quarters, the pickup seems to agree. Granted, the consumer numbers are still atrocious, but what if their crushed retirement accounts reinflate?

Could the bottom be bailout money, and what we're seeing now be a good part of the "smart" money? If this keeps up, Joe Investor would get involved later when his nest egg look good again.

Didn't they say we wouldn't see recovery til it's already happened? Until we see otherwise, that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

State of the State

Here's the current status of the two open trades.

We'll see where the market brings us today. This is a great example of the paradoxical nature of trading. While I'm currently fundamentally bearish along with most agreeing that the rally since March must be overdone, from a technical standpoint I'm bullish.

Confusing, yes. My opinion is that while we can all stand around talking about how overdone the rally is, but if price action continues rising those that don't get involved now are missing some of the best valuations in the long run. Essentially, they miss the bus.

Pretty much, everyone's bluffing, whether it be to themselves or everyone else.

Good trading to all today!

Interesting Day

FOMC news shook it up and upward bias resumed.

The EURUSD trade is still alive and well, & the 2nd buy stop was triggered just before.

Currently: +48 pips

-16 pips

GBPUSD triggered and fizzled to stop out

-85 pips

AUDJPY triggered at 79.95

Currently: +16 pips

Selloff

The EURUSD trade hasn't had to take much heat so far, despite the US market selloff. The Yen crosses have taken the beating the hardest. Unfortunately, following the rules of the NickB method got us in a tad early resulting in a stop out on the GBPJPY. That's the nature of it though, if the rules were broken all the time, they wouldn't come in handy very much.

Guppy Scalp Line

Just had a NickB short signal go off. I was a touch late to the party by ten pips, but I'm taking the trade anyhow since it's a bearish trade. It should actually help mitigate some risk from the long newsletter ideas, key word being 'should.'

Short: 158.80

Stop: 159.30

Target: 158.30

50pip R/R

Full Plate

My analysis is going to get a break today.

My newsletter has two bullish trades, one of which we've already entered into on with one lot of EURUSD. The other is for the GBPJPY.

Both trades start with one lot, and have a 2nd trigger for another lot. They share the same targets, @ 1.44 & 1.6970.

Good trading to all.

Lady in red

....it doesn't get more perfect than that. I'd consider myself lucky to get one of those once a month even.

Maximum drawdown on the trade was about 3 pips.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Trade Successful

+115 pips

Take it, to the limit, one more time...

Limit order @ 160.60

I don't want to risk hitting support @ 160.46

Defense Time

In case of an 11:00 reversal, stop has been moved to lock in a small profit.

In the event we keep running down, a nice profit will be taken around noon.

Swing low, sweet chariot...

...moving the stop to just above the last m15 swing high. Price is bouncing slightly roughly around the 50% fib retrace of Friday's move, making what looks to be a new swing low. Eliminating some risk in case bias shifts and the rally resumes.

Stop: 162.20

Thoughts...

Essentially, I'm trying to take my pound of flesh from the 8:00 a.m. candle. A nice, tall 'Lady in Red' would be great :-) If it switches around to green, I'm back to the sidelines til tomorrow, unless a nice pattern presents itself. I'm going to do some heavy analysis on 8:00 a.m. Guppy candles in the past and see if I can glean any strategy ideas out of it.

Guppy Fade

Short GBPJPY @ 161.75

Stop 162.75

Going to see if and where the correction of Friday's move will take us.

Support Break Update

Looks decent. Anything's possible at this point.

I've added a teal dashed line which follows current price.

GBPJPY support break

I'll be trading a break of the 160.30 level if price shows good upward momentum.

I leave for New Hampshire tomorrow early in the morning, so this'll likely be the only trade left for the week.

Cheers!

My Hands Are Asleep

...from sitting on them.

Today's one of those tough days. Early morning loss, no setup that's my style to take...

In the past I would've compulsively created trade ideas out of the blue, from boredom.

Writing this blog helps me vent on days like this, and solidifies my plan in place.

I should be happy the discipline is showing!

Worth a Shot

GBPUSD stopped out at -125 pips

It would've been a great trade, but the British annoucement took everyone off guard.

BOE Buying Assets

$50 bln

that'll do it...

BOE Interest Rate

Not sure what the number is yet, but my chart does.

I love how the market reacts.

Bought the pullback on a newsletter idea.

Great Post by Ed Ponsi

MY NAME IS ED, AND I’M A CAPITALIST

Cheers from London! It's been an exciting week, complete with visiting dignitaries, rioting in the streets, and the cracking of a major terrorist plot right here in the U.K. I love it here in London, one of the greatest cities in the world, but all things considered, I'm ready to go home! On the Steps of the Bank of England On April 2, one day after the G20 riots in London, I made my way from my hotel to the headquarters of the Bank of England. On the previous day, at that same location, thousands of protesters clashed with police and vandalized a retail office of the Royal Bank of Scotland. When I arrived, a few hundred protesters remained, accompanied by nearly as many police. The walls of the BoE bore graffiti such as "Break the Bank" and "Fight Inflation, Eat the Rich." The protesters I spoke with were young, intelligent, and committed, and they truly seemed to believe that capitalism is the root of all evil. A young lady wore a shirt proclaiming her status as a "Free Range Human." One young man handed out flyers purporting to explain in a rational manner the evils of capitalism and extolling the virtues of communism and anarchy (does it really qualify as anarchy if someone is handing out flyers?). None of the protesters appeared to be over the age of 25. As an unrepentant, lifelong capitalist, I was not upset that these folks were disparaging my way of life. These people were not evil, just misguided and inexperienced in the ways of the world. It's easy to be a committed anarchist when you're living in the basement of your parents' suburban home. These kids don't know that communism enslaves people into poverty, and that for many people around the world, capitalism represents the only hope of freedom. I would love for them to speak with one of the many thousands of people who risked their lives to escape communism for a chance at a better life. I imagine that five years from now, many of those protesters will have children, and will need a place to call home. By then, I wonder how many of them will be seeking loans from – or even working for – the very banks that they now denounce and despise. Perhaps by tasting the rotten fruit of communism, these young lads and ladies will learn how morally bankrupt that failed system truly is. I imagine that down the line, some of them will become staunch free-marketers, once they have seen for themselves that despite its flaws and its wounded reputation, capitalism still is the greatest economic system on earth.

REPRINTED FROM http://edponsi.com/blog.html

Gone Fishin'

Today was a great day to take an early loss.

Small in comparison to the gain we took during London's session, it made another profitable day this week. Again, my best week yet since I got serious in December.

At 10 a.m. I called it a day & went to an early lunch. I checked my mobile periodically, and my hunch was confirmed. Today ended up being fairly flat & rangebound for US equities.

AIG popped 63% today, which filled my cousin's coffer with a 2R trade entered yesterday... Gotta get a direct line to his broker, I tell ya ;-)

AUDJPY trade closed

price flirted with my stop for a while then dropped like a rock.

-25 pips

Spiked Punch

Unemployment made a nice spike in yen related pairs.

AUDJPY Long

Long @ 80.25

Looking for apx 50 pips.

Trade Closed

Considering the initial target was 50 pips, and we have another long entry set for a break of 162.60, profits were taken at 161.66.

+91 pips

Early Bird

Price action just woke up.

Moved stop to ~+50pips

Guppy Scalp

Long for London open @ 160.75

50 pip r/r

Guppy Splash

I have a feeling the ascending wedge is going to trigger the long scalp line @ 162.63

Possibly Asia, possibly London.

If not, a leg down will have us sitting on hands.

50 pip 1:1 r/r

GBPJPY Booty Shake

Price action tried to shake us out from getting our booty, but we still succeeded.

The picture's show the wild ride which ensued. I think this is a good example of not 'getting married' to a trade, and being dynamic enough to perceive a shift in sentiment and ride it. This all occured on London's open, and I've seen many examples of this, where price breaks out on the open, only to reverse. It's the classic shakeout/fakeout.

We we're first long on the breakout, and price came within a few pips of target only to immediately drop like a rock. A few switches of direction ended with some small losses until finally we stayed short and rode the price down.

The breakdown is here:

1 lot long -30 pips

1 lot short -11 pips

2 lot long -13.2 pips (-26.4 net)

2 lot short +29 pips & +100 pips (net with two exits)

Trading time: 2:47 a.m. - 4:44 a.m.

Total net: 61.6 pips

Trade Update

GBPJPY idea

Breakout/Pullback scalp

30 pip target on either side

O.C.O. order

1:1 R/R

Long idea aims for prior highs, short idea targets the ascending trendline.