Blogging Hiatus

Not much interest has been generated by my posts, ok none, haha. There are many a great FX websites to follow, so I don't really take it personally.

However, it was a great way to journal the logic behind a lot of my trades, and surely did help when I did my accounting at the week or month's end.

I'm taking trades much less frequently now, so the accounting has become much simpler.

So for now, it's time to put my blogging experiment to rest until a need for it pops up.

Cheers! (If anyone's reading ;) )

Some good that did me...

....a 'good' entry level turned bad on more REALLY bad Greek news. -90 pips

People are going to start throwing their Euro's in the trash soon.

Short (lightly) @ .8831

Stop: .8900

Target: .8700

UPDATE: added to short @ .8867

moving target on 1st lot to .8820 for +10 & leaving net stop/limit in tact

Position adjustment

I was able to get another fill @ .8905 just before the rally to .8950ish. Dumped the higher entry for -60pips around there as well.

Now I have a much better entry level.

Addition

I've added to the position @ .8890 in hopes the pair's oversold. The stops not too far off, so things aren't looking too promising. A sharp bounce would be welcomed with open arms :)

Slightly Contrarian

The market is still predominantly short AUDUSD, so in the spirit of Interbank stop hunting on Tokyo Sunday I'm going to try to front run some of that action. Very small size to allow for a wide stop.

E: .8975

S: .8835

T: .9235

~.8% account at risk

Quite the retrace...

Closed the second half of the position just ahead of the entry level for +3 pips.

That's the way the cookie crumbles in FX. Although not what I was shooting for in terms of profit, I can't complain having ended the week positive.

On the trading wires I follow, many a trader were screaming margin-call and such on the drop yesterday. Being on the right side of that move was the key to the week. Most of the rest of the time was spent wiggling without much conviction.

Have a great weekend!

Trade Adjustment

The Fed's interest rate news allowed for a partial exit @ .8847 .

The low on the move was around .8920 which there are rumored to be large bids located. Price seemed to confirm this by bouncing from that level.

Original stop & target remain for the 2nd half of the position.

Big Gold News

Rumor has it China's going to be dumping lots of gold.

Extending downside target to .8780 . Taking half profits at original target of .8850 if reached.

EURJPY Trade Closed

An intraday idea which didn't pan out to well. 125 was never able to be broken, and there's some USD strength rearing it's head right now. Hopefully that'll put some tailwinds on my AUD trade.

+18 pips

EURJPY Long

E: 124.30

S: 123.60

T: 125.60

New Week

The EURAUD position was stopped out just recently. Too bad, I was hoping for an 'investment' at historical lows.

The Aussie's been on a roll correcting some of it's down-trend and I think it's about time for it to resume. It's already up 1% for the day and I'm counting on some jitters creeping into the market. I'm taking a small intraday play short.

E: .8980

S: .9050

T: .8850

Great week so far...

Currently short (very small) AUDUSD @ .8880

S: .8915

T: .8815

Also, the EURAUD pair is at VERY significant support. I think it's a good doomsday-hedge trade. Should all this Greece stuff send us in a tailspin, chances are the Euro's still safer than a small economy like Oz. Should the Greek worries abate, the Euro could see some recovery, and with a lot of Oz cheer already baked in the cake, maybe the Euro can gain some ground. I have a limit at the moon for now, to be adjusted as the trade progresses.

E: 1.5432

S: 1.5232

T: 1.8000

%AR: 1%

One Big Trade...

...three little trades.

+82 (previously mentioned below)

+94

+105

TOTAL: +281 pips

A great week already, thanks to pretty stellar Australian employment figures which came out tonight at 19:30EST. I have a buy order to re-enter @ .8780, although I could see the market consolidating this huge surprise for the rest of the week.

Scalp Time

E: .8750

S: .8715

T: .8815


Cititechs went long AUD so we'll see if we can ride the coat-tails a bit.

Re-Saddle

...we'll treat the quick case of the jitters as a short trade which made a profit of +10 pips.

In, other words, same parameters as before.


.8721/.8550/.8950

Sold to Close

@ .8731 for +82 pips


I have a buy stop @ .8790 in case we rip back.

Otherwise I'm going to keep the profits and stalk a better entry/new bias.

Trade Adjustment

Since this idea has worked in my favor, I'm reigning in the stop and the raising the target for a decent r/r ratio.


Stop: .8550

Target: .8950

Reversed Position

+16 pips on close.

E: 8649

S: 8450

T: 8850

Loose r/r for now, to build into. Bad news is getting less response than it typically was in the last few weeks (lack of powder??) And as a good friend reminds me, the Daily 200SMA is lingering below.

If a breakdown occurs, we'll know it for sure and look to enter on a retrace.

Fresh Squeezed Daily

A short idea to start the week.

E:8665

S:8855

T:8465

Which way did he go George, which way did he go?

...NFP is lighting the market's crackpipe.

Negative NFP results are weakening the dollar, but initially there was a knee-jerk upward (USD) move due to the news' addition to the already bleak global economy.

Carry-traders are seeing it as positive, as their yield differentials remain, and Bears are seeing it as negative.

Perfect time to jump ship on a Friday! There's most likely more volatility, but it'll probably be illogical and halt at some unpredictable point in the day.

+152 pips

(week total apx. 260 pips)

2.36 R

NFP on the way.

The open trade is up about 200 pips. Funny thing is I could see that erased in just a few minutes.


We'll see.

Early NYC morning

...looks like we may see some consolidation ahead of the BOE & ECB decisions tomorrow @ 7am.

Good reason to hit the hay!

Stop adjustment: .8940

Change of Plans

I had to close my open orders last night. We had company while watching the season premiere of LOST.

Unfortunately missed a nice entry.

Went short at market just now.

S: .8960

T: .8570

Wedgie Adjust

Market's pulled up a bit.

Closed 2nd half for +46 pips.

Selling into today @ .8910

Buying @ .8820

S/L on either will be 50 pips ((.25% risk) the remainder of the 2nd position.)

Half Off

For one reason or another, the market is showing signs of life. I've watched many a 'good' trade go sour so I've closed half the position for a gain of 73 pips.

Stop moved to b/e (adjusted for rollover cost) @ .8908

Update II

S: .8970

E: .8910

T1: .8765

T2: .8570

Update

RBA is leaving rates unchanged.

Price took a lovely dive, so I'm going to take profits on half the position if we can reach .8750 and move the S/L to break even to see if there's some follow through on the down trend. Most expected rates to increase, so this is a bit of a surprise.

Fade Time

Here's an idea I'm working on with one of my big influences over at ForexLive .

The idea is to fade the strength we get from the potential RBA rate hike, playing on te idea that the downtrend will resume.

ENTRY: .8910

STOP: .8970

TARGET: .8750

(EDIT: added 10 pips to the stop in order to give it a little more breathing room)

(UPDATE: Filled @ 14:40EST Monday )

Eat My Shorts

Anticipating the FOMC data, here's a short idea should the dollar receive a boost.

Just a quick 30/50 play, barely any %'g at risk.

S: 1.4065

T: 1.3985

UPDATE (14:47EST) : Missed target on EURUSD, jumped out for -3 pips .

UPDATE2 (14:53EST) : Reversed the play E4029 S3999 T4080 on rumors of China options expiry @ 4000 & stops above .4060

UPDATE 3: That Sucked ;)

LONG AUDUSD

.8989

stop: .8800

target (soft) : .9299

risk: 1%

UPDATE (Sunday Open) : I was able to squeak out just before retail prices were updated, which made a loss of 147 pips, instead of 190. That's not terrible.

Cable

Just sold a rally in cable.

Let's see if we can get anything short to work this week, longs sure as hell aren't.

Short market.

Stop: 1.6180

Target: 1.6110

(EDIT: 32 MINUTES LATER REMEMBERING WHY I NEVER TRADE CABLE)

Smart Move

Australian CPI came out better than anticipated and price shot up 30 pips immediately following.

I was able to eek 8 pips or so in the struggle, and currently am long with a stop @ .8960.

0.5% of account at risk.

Waffle Trade

....flipped

If Ya Can't Beat Yen, Join Yen...

There seems to be some early signs of USD & JPY strength showing.

Short AUDUSD @ .8990

Stop: .9050

Target: .8890

Shakedown

USDJPY -45 pips

AUDUSD -55 pips

I bailed early on the AUDUSD for a loss of -80 pips and managed to take back 25 pips on the bounce. I'll take the trade again on a break of .9030 . Better to stay flat now in case the drop resumes.

State of the State

Long AUDUSD @ .9029
Trailing Stop: .8929

Long USDJPY @ 90.00
Stop: 89.55
Target: 92.20

Contrary to Popular Opinion...

...took a long order @ .9029 just now.

Two huge down days in the equity markets should merit some sort of correction tomorrow.

If AUD breaks below .8970 we may be looking at a longer leg down.


Stop: .8929

Target: .9229

Special attention around .9170 is merited since it was past support. Quite possibly it will be resistance this time around.

On the bench...

I'm sidelined til things clear up a bit. I think there are too many possibilities at the moment. Long term-trend continuation? Range bound? Trend change?

Better safe than...

...stopped out twice.

I was tripped at .9174 on the dip to .9172 . Frustrating, but oh well. I re-entered on the bounce at the same price and let it run to .9265 . This comes up as the 61.8% retracement of the down move started Friday. Took profits to wash the loss and placed a re-entry order @ .9275 .

The markets should be fairly thin today with the US closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day so if that's all the oomph we get, that's all we get.

-51 pips

+41 pips

net: -10 pips

Preparation is the Key...

It's always important to start the trading week off right...

Depending on how much noise we hear regarding Greece &
Dubai, we could see things begin to turn up. However,
if those two themes dominate the wires it's likely we'll see a large move down.
It's yet another week sitting right near a pretty major 'point of contention.'
Planning & prep is key so when the knuckle wringing begins,
one doesn't lose their cool.

I hopped back into the trade just before close on Friday considering the price never
broke down. I'll have to be on my toes for the open today.

Trade Closed

Closed for 18.2 pips.

It seemed as though it would only be a matter of time before .92 was tested so I erred on the side of caution & closed. Might as well end the week in the black.

I have an entry order @ .9272 just in case the pair finds it's legs again.

Can I get a retrace...

...but not a breakdown.

Data today brought a lot of see-saw action to the markets. Watching the other Majors had me feeling like a dog watching a tennis match. The Aussie showed much strength today, with rumors of the RBA sitting atop .9330 to "smooth" price action, not slam it. This is exactly the effect it had.

Now entering the Asian session we're seeing a little Dollar firming. No data should keep the session 'behaving.'

Stop moved with 34EMA 'low' to .9179

Surprising Australian Data

Unemployment down to 5.5% from 5.7%

Added roughly 35K jobs, while analysts speculated only 10K.

Currently trading @ .9275, roughly 20pips off the high

Stop moved to .9149

Stop Adjustment

...moved to .9140

Yesterday's Yen strength really tried my patience. All looks good for now, the key being "for now..."

Aussie currently trading around .9260

T.A.A.R.P.

...Troubled American's Automobile Repayment Plan.

China Ends U.S.’s Reign as Largest Auto Market

Obama's working as we speak on figuring a clever way to promote "Clunkers for Cash" in lieu of Treasury payments to China.

All jokes aside, this is big news, albeit not surprising in the least.

011110

Today's a palindrome folks. (If you trade in the U.S.)

It's binary as well, what a day for number geeks!

Here's the scoop:

As you can see above, the Dollar felt a little dirty, so it took a bath once the market opened in Sydney. Pre-retail market open, there was 'real' money seen buying Aussie, which saw most of the anti-dollar pairs gap on the open, a rare occasion in The Land of FX.

The picture below shows the current strategy. The entry taken post-NFP is doing quite nicely, pushing into the .9320 high as we speak. Stop is being trailed along the 34EMA (low) on the H6 chart. Top-line target is parity.

Happy trading to all this week!

Good Morning Down Undah

Stop moved to .9078

Quite the rally on the open today. Playing the safe side as sometimes these Sunday rallies have a tendency to fizzle.

NFP Delight

Unfortunately I jumped ship before payroll data to be 'safe,' so I missed the meat of the move. I re-entered long on the break of .9200 . Unless bias shifts back short again, I'm shooting for the moon on this one.

Target: Parity

Stop: .9050