Reversed Position

Unfortunately, the short idea didn't work out. I don't feel so bad, as many speculators saw the same opportunity.

I flipped my bias for now, and have gone long at .9128.

Stop: .9228

Target: .9528

Squeaky Clean

...I was able to squeak out with a small loss, for sake of a better entry.

Sell on a retrace to .9150 or a breakdown of .9100 .

Reloaded

Stopped out for -30 pips.

Able to reload around the same area, with a healthier stop this time.

-75 pips on the rally today.

I was able to get in short at .9130 about an hour ago.

Tight stop 30 pips up. Soft target of .9080, hard target at .9030 .

A Look at the Book...

There really isn't much in the way of buy orders if price were to keep moving upward. In fact, sell orders increase in proportion whether price moves up or down. If it moves down, there's a good chance a lot of the open long positions begin liquidating.

Interesting spot of note, the spike in sell orders shown just above .8500 is more prominent this week than it was last. Could it be that last weeks illiquid trading conditions shook out some weak positions and pending orders?

This should be a very interesting week. It's anyone's guess right now. I'm just excited to be back, I get lonely when the market's closed for extended periods! :)

Year In Review

If .8950 breaks and can hold lower, essentially we have a bounce off the bottom of the bull channel on the Daily chart. The failure at .9000 will confirm. Next major support would be .8893 at the 100SMA.

Are two pictures worth two-thousand words?

Looking Good So Far...

So the small short I attempted was unsuccesful, and rightly so as it was an impulse trade.

-31 pips

However, the trade which I had planned has behaved well thus far. Price spiked on the retest of the broken neckline and broke pretty hard into the 16:00 GMT price fix. Word was that there was a large imbalance of excess sellers and events unfolded accordingly.

Price traveled to a low right near .8900 and subsequently bounced. A bomb scare in Times Square squeezed the dollar bringing the AUD right back near entry, but it seems as though that is subsiding now....

I'm moving my stop down 25 pips to .9052 to take some risk off the table.

Unrealized P/L: +39.5 pips

Short at market .8977 Stop: .9077 Target: .8600

Asia Play

.8860 broke, so I opened a small short position on the retrace with a stop @ .8899

Entry: .8869

Possible Pullback Pattern Pending

While the retail market closed for the holiday around .8825, interbank trade brought the pair up near session highs at .8850-60

It's very likely we'll get stopped on the open today, in which case there are some very attractive short entry areas to watch for.

On a H6 chart, the medium-term Triangle/H&S pattern has it's neckline at ~.8970. This is the bottom of the range of interest. Above there, a 144EMA rests at .9040 and further up lies the top of the bear channel at .9060. If a fib range is calculated from the last downswing, this .8960/9060 range intersects the 50% & 61.8% retracement lines.

Most likely scenario, I think, is that the bearish bias holds but the unknown variable is how deep a retracement we'll see.

Keep in mind, long term trends can take long term 'breathers,' and that trend is still up-up-up since March. It's possible at any minute that the bulls will stampede the forest, sending the bears back to hibernation.

All I Want for Christmas is...

... a very heavy Aussie. It's pushing towards new lows as I speak. Moving stop to breakeven which is apx an ATR length away from the lows.

I'm so tempted to take profits and run, but the trade is only yielding a ~1:1 r/r ratio right now. This would maintain my Sharpe ratio, but not improve it at all. I need a good 200-400 pip trade to really start beefing up the stats.

update: stop moved to .8870

Holiday Sleigh Ride

Bearish sentiment has remained, keeping the pair below .8900 which bodes well for the trade. Dow's up near +100 for the day, and the Aussie doesn't seem to mind.

Moving stop to .8940 to remove some risk. This is today's low plus some ATR based wiggle room. If it nears there a re-entry should be planned.

100 SMA Touch

Price has touched the 100 sma on the daily chart. There's been a slight bounce, but not much conviction. The reason for entry last night was that price broke through it's 24-day lows, something it hasn't done since July 8th. Indicators were much more bullish on that occasion, which led it to rise to where we're at now.

Call Me Johnny-Come-Lately

Short on the large head-n-shoulders @ .8895

Stop: .9000

Target: .8500

Bonk

Schtopped out.

-116 pips

Stop Adjustment

moving up to .8940 to reduce some risk.

UPDATE: Reducing target to .9130 as well. The market seems to be saying that without good surprises, no rallies.

I agree with Jason (FXCM) that the Fundamentals are getting stale, however the same if not worse could be said for the US despite all their posturing.

Long View

Entry: .9055

Stop: .8905

Target: .9330

Looks Can Be Deceiving...

-30 pips

took the short reversal @ .9120

S: .9150

T:.9070

Idea Is Now Live

....Looked like a decent trade.

I've taken it live.

Entry: .91124

Intraday Long (demo)

E: .9110

S: .9080

T: .9160