Candelabra

Blogging Hiatus

2010-03-06T11:38:00.002-05:00

Not much interest has been generated by my posts, ok none, haha. There are many a great FX websites to follow, so I don't really take it personally.

However, it was a great way to journal the logic behind a lot of my trades, and surely did help when I did my accounting at the week or month's end.

I'm taking trades much less frequently now, so the accounting has become much simpler.

So for now, it's time to put my blogging experiment to rest until a need for it pops up.

Cheers! (If anyone's reading ;) )

Some good that did me...

2010-02-25T12:49:00.004-05:00

....a 'good' entry level turned bad on more REALLY bad Greek news. -90 pips

People are going to start throwing their Euro's in the trash soon.

Short (lightly) @ .8831

Stop: .8900

Target: .8700

UPDATE: added to short @ .8867

moving target on 1st lot to .8820 for +10 & leaving net stop/limit in tact

Position adjustment

2010-02-24T11:01:00.003-05:00

I was able to get another fill @ .8905 just before the rally to .8950ish. Dumped the higher entry for -60pips around there as well.

Now I have a much better entry level.

Addition

2010-02-23T12:58:00.001-05:00

I've added to the position @ .8890 in hopes the pair's oversold. The stops not too far off, so things aren't looking too promising. A sharp bounce would be welcomed with open arms :)

Slightly Contrarian

2010-02-19T14:50:00.002-05:00

The market is still predominantly short AUDUSD, so in the spirit of Interbank stop hunting on Tokyo Sunday I'm going to try to front run some of that action. Very small size to allow for a wide stop.

E: .8975

S: .8835

T: .9235

~.8% account at risk

Quite the retrace...

2010-02-19T13:13:00.002-05:00

Closed the second half of the position just ahead of the entry level for +3 pips.

That's the way the cookie crumbles in FX. Although not what I was shooting for in terms of profit, I can't complain having ended the week positive.

On the trading wires I follow, many a trader were screaming margin-call and such on the drop yesterday. Being on the right side of that move was the key to the week. Most of the rest of the time was spent wiggling without much conviction.

Have a great weekend!

Trade Adjustment

2010-02-18T17:25:00.002-05:00

The Fed's interest rate news allowed for a partial exit @ .8847 .

The low on the move was around .8920 which there are rumored to be large bids located. Price seemed to confirm this by bouncing from that level.

Original stop & target remain for the 2nd half of the position.

Big Gold News

2010-02-17T17:16:00.001-05:00

Rumor has it China's going to be dumping lots of gold.

Extending downside target to .8780 . Taking half profits at original target of .8850 if reached.

EURJPY Trade Closed

2010-02-17T10:41:00.001-05:00

An intraday idea which didn't pan out to well. 125 was never able to be broken, and there's some USD strength rearing it's head right now. Hopefully that'll put some tailwinds on my AUD trade.

+18 pips

EURJPY Long

2010-02-16T19:41:00.001-05:00

E: 124.30

S: 123.60

T: 125.60

New Week

2010-02-16T09:11:00.003-05:00

The EURAUD position was stopped out just recently. Too bad, I was hoping for an 'investment' at historical lows.

The Aussie's been on a roll correcting some of it's down-trend and I think it's about time for it to resume. It's already up 1% for the day and I'm counting on some jitters creeping into the market. I'm taking a small intraday play short.

E: .8980

S: .9050

T: .8850

Great week so far...

2010-02-11T10:02:00.002-05:00

Currently short (very small) AUDUSD @ .8880

S: .8915

T: .8815

Also, the EURAUD pair is at VERY significant support. I think it's a good doomsday-hedge trade. Should all this Greece stuff send us in a tailspin, chances are the Euro's still safer than a small economy like Oz. Should the Greek worries abate, the Euro could see some recovery, and with a lot of Oz cheer already baked in the cake, maybe the Euro can gain some ground. I have a limit at the moon for now, to be adjusted as the trade progresses.

E: 1.5432

S: 1.5232

T: 1.8000

%AR: 1%

One Big Trade...

2010-02-10T20:57:00.002-05:00

...three little trades.

+82 (previously mentioned below)

+94

+105

TOTAL: +281 pips

A great week already, thanks to pretty stellar Australian employment figures which came out tonight at 19:30EST. I have a buy order to re-enter @ .8780, although I could see the market consolidating this huge surprise for the rest of the week.

Scalp Time

2010-02-10T12:24:00.002-05:00

E: .8750

S: .8715

T: .8815

Cititechs went long AUD so we'll see if we can ride the coat-tails a bit.

Re-Saddle

2010-02-10T10:58:00.002-05:00

...we'll treat the quick case of the jitters as a short trade which made a profit of +10 pips.

In, other words, same parameters as before.

.8721/.8550/.8950

Sold to Close

2010-02-10T10:08:00.002-05:00

@ .8731 for +82 pips

I have a buy stop @ .8790 in case we rip back.

Otherwise I'm going to keep the profits and stalk a better entry/new bias.

Trade Adjustment

2010-02-09T17:28:00.003-05:00

Since this idea has worked in my favor, I'm reigning in the stop and the raising the target for a decent r/r ratio.

Stop: .8550

Target: .8950

Reversed Position

2010-02-08T22:26:00.002-05:00

+16 pips on close.

E: 8649

S: 8450

T: 8850

Loose r/r for now, to build into. Bad news is getting less response than it typically was in the last few weeks (lack of powder??) And as a good friend reminds me, the Daily 200SMA is lingering below.

If a breakdown occurs, we'll know it for sure and look to enter on a retrace.

Fresh Squeezed Daily

2010-02-08T06:50:00.002-05:00

A short idea to start the week.

E:8665

S:8855

T:8465

Which way did he go George, which way did he go?

2010-02-05T08:57:00.004-05:00

...NFP is lighting the market's crackpipe.

Negative NFP results are weakening the dollar, but initially there was a knee-jerk upward (USD) move due to the news' addition to the already bleak global economy.

Carry-traders are seeing it as positive, as their yield differentials remain, and Bears are seeing it as negative.

Perfect time to jump ship on a Friday! There's most likely more volatility, but it'll probably be illogical and halt at some unpredictable point in the day.

+152 pips

(week total apx. 260 pips)

2.36 R

NFP on the way.

2010-02-05T08:09:00.001-05:00

The open trade is up about 200 pips. Funny thing is I could see that erased in just a few minutes.

We'll see.

Early NYC morning

2010-02-03T23:59:00.002-05:00

...looks like we may see some consolidation ahead of the BOE & ECB decisions tomorrow @ 7am.

Good reason to hit the hay!

Stop adjustment: .8940

Change of Plans

2010-02-03T09:40:00.001-05:00

I had to close my open orders last night. We had company while watching the season premiere of LOST.

Unfortunately missed a nice entry.

Went short at market just now.

S: .8960

T: .8570

Wedgie Adjust

2010-02-02T18:03:00.002-05:00

Market's pulled up a bit.

Closed 2nd half for +46 pips.

Selling into today @ .8910

Buying @ .8820

S/L on either will be 50 pips ((.25% risk) the remainder of the 2nd position.)

Half Off

2010-02-02T10:28:00.002-05:00

For one reason or another, the market is showing signs of life. I've watched many a 'good' trade go sour so I've closed half the position for a gain of 73 pips.

Stop moved to b/e (adjusted for rollover cost) @ .8908

Update II

2010-02-01T23:42:00.001-05:00

S: .8970

E: .8910

T1: .8765

T2: .8570

Update

2010-02-01T22:32:00.001-05:00

RBA is leaving rates unchanged.

Price took a lovely dive, so I'm going to take profits on half the position if we can reach .8750 and move the S/L to break even to see if there's some follow through on the down trend. Most expected rates to increase, so this is a bit of a surprise.

Fade Time

2010-01-31T19:12:00.007-05:00

Here's an idea I'm working on with one of my big influences over at ForexLive .

The idea is to fade the strength we get from the potential RBA rate hike, playing on te idea that the downtrend will resume.

ENTRY: .8910

STOP: .8970

TARGET: .8750

(EDIT: added 10 pips to the stop in order to give it a little more breathing room)

(UPDATE: Filled @ 14:40EST Monday )

Eat My Shorts

2010-01-27T12:51:00.006-05:00

Anticipating the FOMC data, here's a short idea should the dollar receive a boost.

Just a quick 30/50 play, barely any %'g at risk.

S: 1.4065

T: 1.3985

UPDATE (14:47EST) : Missed target on EURUSD, jumped out for -3 pips .

UPDATE2 (14:53EST) : Reversed the play E4029 S3999 T4080 on rumors of China options expiry @ 4000 & stops above .4060

UPDATE 3: That Sucked ;)

2010-01-27T05:13:00.003-05:00

LONG AUDUSD

.8989

stop: .8800

target (soft) : .9299

risk: 1%

UPDATE (Sunday Open) : I was able to squeak out just before retail prices were updated, which made a loss of 147 pips, instead of 190. That's not terrible.

Cable

2010-01-27T04:10:00.002-05:00

Just sold a rally in cable.

Let's see if we can get anything short to work this week, longs sure as hell aren't.

Short market.

Stop: 1.6180

Target: 1.6110

(EDIT: 32 MINUTES LATER REMEMBERING WHY I NEVER TRADE CABLE)

Smart Move

2010-01-26T20:50:00.003-05:00

Australian CPI came out better than anticipated and price shot up 30 pips immediately following.

I was able to eek 8 pips or so in the struggle, and currently am long with a stop @ .8960.

0.5% of account at risk.

Waffle Trade

2010-01-26T19:26:00.001-05:00

....flipped

If Ya Can't Beat Yen, Join Yen...

2010-01-26T19:08:00.001-05:00

There seems to be some early signs of USD & JPY strength showing.

Short AUDUSD @ .8990

Stop: .9050

Target: .8890

Shakedown

2010-01-26T11:54:00.002-05:00

USDJPY -45 pips

AUDUSD -55 pips

I bailed early on the AUDUSD for a loss of -80 pips and managed to take back 25 pips on the bounce. I'll take the trade again on a break of .9030 . Better to stay flat now in case the drop resumes.

State of the State

2010-01-25T14:40:00.001-05:00

Long AUDUSD @ .9029
Trailing Stop: .8929

Long USDJPY @ 90.00
Stop: 89.55
Target: 92.20

Contrary to Popular Opinion...

2010-01-21T15:49:00.004-05:00

...took a long order @ .9029 just now.

Two huge down days in the equity markets should merit some sort of correction tomorrow.

If AUD breaks below .8970 we may be looking at a longer leg down.

Stop: .8929

Target: .9229

Special attention around .9170 is merited since it was past support. Quite possibly it will be resistance this time around.

On the bench...

2010-01-20T11:50:00.000-05:00

I'm sidelined til things clear up a bit. I think there are too many possibilities at the moment. Long term-trend continuation? Range bound? Trend change?

Better safe than...

2010-01-18T09:17:00.002-05:00

...stopped out twice.

I was tripped at .9174 on the dip to .9172 . Frustrating, but oh well. I re-entered on the bounce at the same price and let it run to .9265 . This comes up as the 61.8% retracement of the down move started Friday. Took profits to wash the loss and placed a re-entry order @ .9275 .

The markets should be fairly thin today with the US closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day so if that's all the oomph we get, that's all we get.

-51 pips

+41 pips

net: -10 pips

Preparation is the Key...

2010-01-17T11:31:00.006-05:00

It's always important to start the trading week off right...

Depending on how much noise we hear regarding Greece &
Dubai, we could see things begin to turn up. However,
if those two themes dominate the wires it's likely we'll see a large move down.
It's yet another week sitting right near a pretty major 'point of contention.'
Planning & prep is key so when the knuckle wringing begins,
one doesn't lose their cool.

I hopped back into the trade just before close on Friday considering the price never
broke down. I'll have to be on my toes for the open today.

Trade Closed

2010-01-15T13:17:00.000-05:00

Closed for 18.2 pips.

It seemed as though it would only be a matter of time before .92 was tested so I erred on the side of caution & closed. Might as well end the week in the black.

I have an entry order @ .9272 just in case the pair finds it's legs again.

Can I get a retrace...

2010-01-14T20:08:00.002-05:00

...but not a breakdown.

Data today brought a lot of see-saw action to the markets. Watching the other Majors had me feeling like a dog watching a tennis match. The Aussie showed much strength today, with rumors of the RBA sitting atop .9330 to "smooth" price action, not slam it. This is exactly the effect it had.

Now entering the Asian session we're seeing a little Dollar firming. No data should keep the session 'behaving.'

Stop moved with 34EMA 'low' to .9179

Surprising Australian Data

2010-01-13T20:18:00.002-05:00

Unemployment down to 5.5% from 5.7%

Added roughly 35K jobs, while analysts speculated only 10K.

Currently trading @ .9275, roughly 20pips off the high

Stop moved to .9149

Stop Adjustment

2010-01-13T08:50:00.001-05:00

...moved to .9140

Yesterday's Yen strength really tried my patience. All looks good for now, the key being "for now..."

Aussie currently trading around .9260

T.A.A.R.P.

2010-01-11T08:16:00.003-05:00

...Troubled American's Automobile Repayment Plan.

China Ends U.S.’s Reign as Largest Auto Market

Obama's working as we speak on figuring a clever way to promote "Clunkers for Cash" in lieu of Treasury payments to China.

All jokes aside, this is big news, albeit not surprising in the least.

011110

2010-01-11T06:32:00.006-05:00

Today's a palindrome folks. (If you trade in the U.S.)

It's binary as well, what a day for number geeks!

Here's the scoop:

As you can see above, the Dollar felt a little dirty, so it took a bath once the market opened in Sydney. Pre-retail market open, there was 'real' money seen buying Aussie, which saw most of the anti-dollar pairs gap on the open, a rare occasion in The Land of FX.

The picture below shows the current strategy. The entry taken post-NFP is doing quite nicely, pushing into the .9320 high as we speak. Stop is being trailed along the 34EMA (low) on the H6 chart. Top-line target is parity.

Happy trading to all this week!

Good Morning Down Undah

2010-01-10T19:08:00.002-05:00

Stop moved to .9078

Quite the rally on the open today. Playing the safe side as sometimes these Sunday rallies have a tendency to fizzle.

NFP Delight

2010-01-08T08:57:00.002-05:00

Unfortunately I jumped ship before payroll data to be 'safe,' so I missed the meat of the move. I re-entered long on the break of .9200 . Unless bias shifts back short again, I'm shooting for the moon on this one.

Target: Parity

Stop: .9050

Reversed Position

2010-01-06T21:43:00.002-05:00

Unfortunately, the short idea didn't work out. I don't feel so bad, as many speculators saw the same opportunity.

I flipped my bias for now, and have gone long at .9128.

Stop: .9228

Target: .9528

Squeaky Clean

2010-01-05T23:58:00.002-05:00

...I was able to squeak out with a small loss, for sake of a better entry.

Sell on a retrace to .9150 or a breakdown of .9100 .

Reloaded

2010-01-05T09:09:00.001-05:00

Stopped out for -30 pips.

Able to reload around the same area, with a healthier stop this time.

2010-01-04T21:54:00.001-05:00

-75 pips on the rally today.

I was able to get in short at .9130 about an hour ago.

Tight stop 30 pips up. Soft target of .9080, hard target at .9030 .

A Look at the Book...

2010-01-03T09:47:00.005-05:00

There really isn't much in the way of buy orders if price were to keep moving upward. In fact, sell orders increase in proportion whether price moves up or down. If it moves down, there's a good chance a lot of the open long positions begin liquidating.

Interesting spot of note, the spike in sell orders shown just above .8500 is more prominent this week than it was last. Could it be that last weeks illiquid trading conditions shook out some weak positions and pending orders?

This should be a very interesting week. It's anyone's guess right now. I'm just excited to be back, I get lonely when the market's closed for extended periods! :)

Year In Review

2009-12-31T09:53:00.002-05:00

If .8950 breaks and can hold lower, essentially we have a bounce off the bottom of the bull channel on the Daily chart. The failure at .9000 will confirm. Next major support would be .8893 at the 100SMA.

Are two pictures worth two-thousand words?

Looking Good So Far...

2009-12-30T13:28:00.003-05:00

So the small short I attempted was unsuccesful, and rightly so as it was an impulse trade.

-31 pips

However, the trade which I had planned has behaved well thus far. Price spiked on the retest of the broken neckline and broke pretty hard into the 16:00 GMT price fix. Word was that there was a large imbalance of excess sellers and events unfolded accordingly.

Price traveled to a low right near .8900 and subsequently bounced. A bomb scare in Times Square squeezed the dollar bringing the AUD right back near entry, but it seems as though that is subsiding now....

I'm moving my stop down 25 pips to .9052 to take some risk off the table.

Unrealized P/L: +39.5 pips

2009-12-29T07:54:00.001-05:00

Short at market .8977 Stop: .9077 Target: .8600

Asia Play

2009-12-28T18:13:00.001-05:00

.8860 broke, so I opened a small short position on the retrace with a stop @ .8899

Entry: .8869

Possible Pullback Pattern Pending

2009-12-27T12:10:00.003-05:00

While the retail market closed for the holiday around .8825, interbank trade brought the pair up near session highs at .8850-60

It's very likely we'll get stopped on the open today, in which case there are some very attractive short entry areas to watch for.

On a H6 chart, the medium-term Triangle/H&S pattern has it's neckline at ~.8970. This is the bottom of the range of interest. Above there, a 144EMA rests at .9040 and further up lies the top of the bear channel at .9060. If a fib range is calculated from the last downswing, this .8960/9060 range intersects the 50% & 61.8% retracement lines.

Most likely scenario, I think, is that the bearish bias holds but the unknown variable is how deep a retracement we'll see.

Keep in mind, long term trends can take long term 'breathers,' and that trend is still up-up-up since March. It's possible at any minute that the bulls will stampede the forest, sending the bears back to hibernation.

All I Want for Christmas is...

2009-12-22T10:40:00.004-05:00

... a very heavy Aussie. It's pushing towards new lows as I speak. Moving stop to breakeven which is apx an ATR length away from the lows.

I'm so tempted to take profits and run, but the trade is only yielding a ~1:1 r/r ratio right now. This would maintain my Sharpe ratio, but not improve it at all. I need a good 200-400 pip trade to really start beefing up the stats.

update: stop moved to .8870

Holiday Sleigh Ride

2009-12-21T12:39:00.002-05:00

Bearish sentiment has remained, keeping the pair below .8900 which bodes well for the trade. Dow's up near +100 for the day, and the Aussie doesn't seem to mind.

Moving stop to .8940 to remove some risk. This is today's low plus some ATR based wiggle room. If it nears there a re-entry should be planned.

100 SMA Touch

2009-12-17T11:09:00.003-05:00

Price has touched the 100 sma on the daily chart. There's been a slight bounce, but not much conviction. The reason for entry last night was that price broke through it's 24-day lows, something it hasn't done since July 8th. Indicators were much more bullish on that occasion, which led it to rise to where we're at now.

Call Me Johnny-Come-Lately

2009-12-17T07:17:00.001-05:00

Short on the large head-n-shoulders @ .8895

Stop: .9000

Target: .8500

Bonk

2009-12-16T22:12:00.000-05:00

Schtopped out.

-116 pips

Stop Adjustment

2009-12-15T17:35:00.004-05:00

moving up to .8940 to reduce some risk.

UPDATE: Reducing target to .9130 as well. The market seems to be saying that without good surprises, no rallies.

I agree with Jason (FXCM) that the Fundamentals are getting stale, however the same if not worse could be said for the US despite all their posturing.

Long View

2009-12-15T03:13:00.001-05:00

Entry: .9055

Stop: .8905

Target: .9330

Looks Can Be Deceiving...

2009-12-14T02:46:00.001-05:00

-30 pips

took the short reversal @ .9120

S: .9150

T:.9070

Idea Is Now Live

2009-12-13T17:17:00.001-05:00

....Looked like a decent trade.

I've taken it live.

Entry: .91124

Intraday Long (demo)

2009-12-13T14:50:00.000-05:00

E: .9110

S: .9080

T: .9160

Exit on First Sign of Strength

2009-12-11T14:38:00.002-05:00

The position reached a high of ~+16pips. I think the original target may be a bit ambitious for a Friday after noon.

Currently up 6 pips. Hopefully we can see .9130/40 by days end.

UPDATE: Price reached .9123 and stalled. Exit for +13 pips.

Have a great weekend!

Demolicious

2009-12-11T12:02:00.001-05:00

Went long on a bounce near P.P. support .9110

Stop: .9080

Target: .9160

Short Bus

2009-12-10T13:09:00.002-05:00

currently short .9164 as of 11:16 right at the Person's Pivot resistance.

Will exit on next clear 'voodoo' buy signal.

Price currently trading .9140/50

(DEMO)

Update: closed for -2 pips

Fake Plastic Trees

2009-12-09T16:40:00.002-05:00

....scored +6 (fake) pips today! (demo account)

I'm currently playing around with an intraday strategy again, 15m charts with Persons Pivots and some crazy voodoo hoo-doo buy sell signals.

We All Gotta Lose Sometime...

2009-12-08T13:59:00.002-05:00

After apx. 1 1/2 hours of torture (price flirting with my stop,) I finally got booted a few minutes ago.

-101.7 pips

Now's a good opportunity to sit back, relax and re-evaluate the market from the sidelines. It'll take some progression in order to really determine whether conditions are range-bound, or possibly even bearish.

Thank Ye Bernanke...

2009-12-07T12:49:00.000-05:00

...hopefully the dovish stance bodes well for the USD carry.

Not By the Hair of My Chinny-Chin-Chin...

2009-12-07T11:34:00.002-05:00

Anything's possible at this point...

NFP Schizophrenia

2009-12-04T12:00:00.002-05:00

NFP was a huge surprise, and though it is a bullish sign for the economy people raced to the dollar suspecting rates may be hiked much sooner than previously thought.

Stop was triggered at .9180 for +50 pips

I've re-entered at .9150 just now, with a stop at .9050

Hopefully, people have bought enough dollars already today, and the positive sentiment can return giving the trade some tailwinds. Also, I'm noticing a pattern that a lot of the AUD's action for the week is happening during Interbank trade, pre-retail hours on Sunday. Those crafty folks are getting the move and then sitting pretty while everyone else scrambles all week for 10 pips.

Have a great weekend!

Nine One Eight Oh

2009-12-03T01:10:00.001-05:00

STOP MOVE

knock knock knockin on 93's dooooooor....

2009-12-02T20:42:00.000-05:00

Meager As It May Be...

2009-12-02T00:47:00.000-05:00

...it's profit time.

Stop moved to .9140.

Good Entry

2009-12-01T09:32:00.000-05:00

In the spirit of keeping my win rate up, I'm moving stop to break even.

Rates Up Down Under

2009-11-30T22:37:00.001-05:00

Got a fill at .9130 at the rate decision. Up about 20-30 pips instantly.

Let's see what happens.

Stop @ .9030

IB Short Covering Is My Bet...

2009-11-29T19:43:00.003-05:00

...I drew some lines while lusting to buy the charts & decided against it. Had there been a short squeeze mixed with buying pressure the IB moves pre-retail would've been larger, I think.

There should be an opportunity to get in at a better price soon.

Me thinks me drinks on this fine Sunday eve!

Cheers.

2009-11-27T16:19:00.003-05:00

Last significant correction ran all through June.

The current correction hasn't extended as far in price or duration... yet. Behind both corrections are very similar price patterns. Impulsive at first, smoothed, then again impulsive and finally the correction. Both bull runs spanned ~14 weeks & corrected for ~6.

Will price behave similarly after a little more bear action?

Sea Change or Much Needed Breather?

2009-11-27T12:44:00.002-05:00

The Aussie broke it's trendline from March. After bottoming around .8950, price has now started to ease back up to the broken line.

Will it bounce back down & confirm a switch in sentiment?

Will it remain stuck in the .89-.94 range?

Was it merely a headfake to clear out the excessive longs built up?

Only time will tell... I'll take my 25 pips and run to the sidelines for now!

Stop Adjustment

2009-11-25T15:06:00.001-05:00

Stop moved to .9130

The Trend is Your Friend...

2009-11-25T11:52:00.000-05:00

The Equity markets pouted all yesterday morning on the fresh data, only to bring the indexes close to unchanged in the last hour or so of the session.

Overnight, some Australian news came out which blasted the AUDUSD through the .9210 resistance. It also cleared .9250-60, which is now acting as support.

A stop move is in order soon. Where, I'm not sure yet.

Happy Holidays to all!

How do you say "Toro" in Australian?

2009-11-24T20:32:00.000-05:00

Data Day

2009-11-24T07:15:00.003-05:00

......tons of figures coming out today should make for a bumpy ride. GDP & Case Schiller in the a.m. & then crude & gas at the close.

Should be fun!

Lines in the Sand

2009-11-23T12:21:00.002-05:00

So far, .9100 was well guarded. If/when there's a pullback, it would be nice to see .9150 and/or .9200 behave similarly.

The daily & weekly charts show what seems to be a nice clean bounce from their trendline/MA support. There was much skepticism regarding the risk trade last week, so hopefully some dry powder is out there to keep the bids coming...

Even Steven...

2009-11-23T06:26:00.002-05:00

....is where the stop loss is moved to.

No sense in letting an early winner turn loser.

Bullish action on the weeks open was typical throughout the last trade. However, it also usually led to fairly weak price action in the week to follow.

A Horse Named Trigger...

2009-11-20T10:55:00.001-05:00

...trade open.

Currently trading at .9120

Let's see what opportunity brings!

Here's the Plan, Stan

2009-11-19T05:14:00.002-05:00

Entry: .9101

Stop: .8999

Target: .9750 (stop actively managed along the way)

Daily Outlook: Uptrend line since mid March lines up with entry. Stop placement lines up currently with the 50MA, which will rise if the long term uptrend persists.

H4 Outlook: Entry lines up with the 61.8 fib retracement of the last run from 11/01-11/16.

(.8905-.9405)

Stop, In the Name of Love....

2009-11-19T04:20:00.002-05:00

Finally stopped out at 3:15 am.

What a wild ride it was.

20 days, my longest trade held yet...

Time to sit back and plan my nest move.

+200 pips (10.3 pips interest)

Mr T. likes gold...

2009-11-17T11:02:00.001-05:00

....but sees a double top.

I agree. If the bears keep up we might get stopped.

WWTD?

2009-11-16T23:59:00.001-05:00

Tough Call

2009-11-16T17:45:00.002-05:00

"...today was a good day." - Ice Cube

While it's tempting after today's gains to slide the stop up a tad, I've decided against it. We tapped a high at .9405. Since then price action has held stable, but looks as though it may test the range we just broke out of again. Keeping the stop ~150 pips below current ranges has worked for two weeks, while over-tightening would have booted us a few times over.

On the daily charts, the most recent swing low is still .9200 . There was a brief pullback since then in which .9260 held, but the correction was sideways and not the more healthy "two steps forward, one step back." While seemingly bullish, we could retest this range to shake out the "weak" longs. If it is, in fact, bullish then there's nothing to worry about. If it turns out to be a true loss of momentum then we're stopped out at a moderate 2:1 R/R ratio.

.9370/9400's the new .9320/60

2009-11-16T15:15:00.000-05:00

Stop Adjustment

2009-11-15T19:50:00.000-05:00

....currently at .9199

.9260 is closest support level.

Weekly Wrap Up

2009-11-13T13:30:00.002-05:00

Broad market strength kept the trade afloat at the beginning of the week. Since the AUDUSD jumped out of the gate on Sunday afternoon, not much steam was left for during the week.

Yesterday was a temporary scare in my opinion. People are wary of any signs of overextension, and rightfully so after the GFC last year.

The problem with looking through last years 'lens' as far as valuations are concerned is that it's a stale view. Yes, it may seem alarming that asset prices are seemingly sprinting back to pre-crisis levels, but they're doing this on the back of a steadily declining dollar.

10,000 on the DOW is not the same as the last time we reached that level... The amount of Dollars that have been injected into the economy, and more importantly STILL being injected into the economy with no plan to rest for months to come will continue to provide tailwinds to risk appetite.

I'm in no way an expert, but I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to see that the good ol' greenback people swapped their assets for last year, is by no means the same greenback you'll get if you decide to do the same today...

Have a great weekend!

More Jobs!

2009-11-11T20:08:00.002-05:00

...yet another surprise month of the Australian economy adding both full & part-time jobs.

This fares well for our position.